Turning Point: The Shot Heard Round the World

It was a sleepy April morning on a lonely bridge in Massachusetts when suddenly the "shot heard round the world" thrust the thirteen American colonies into a long, bloody revolt against the British Empire.

Now, 235 years after the start of the American Revolution, another shot has rung out from Massachusetts. Last night, Scott Brown - a Republican - pulled off a stunning upset victory over his Democratic opponent and won the US Senate seat that had been held by the Kennedy family for over 50 years. [link]

What makes this victory particularly stunning is its effect on national policy. Since the 2008 election and settling of the contested election of Al Franken (D-MN) to the US Senate, the Democrats have enjoyed a super-majority. If this was a hockey game, the Dems were skating through a power play with the potential of scoring a lot of points with their brash, young, star-player President. But not every hockey team playing with the advantage of the power play is able to score. And neither have the Democrats. Now they've lost their advantage.

It has been a contentious year even within Democratic ranks. It's not been a good year for the GOP, either, as they struggle to find their identity in the political landscape. But in a time when many had counted them out, the Republican Party has managed to remain steadfast and poised for a comeback.

Little has been accomplished by Congress. Unemployment, government debt (national, state, and local) and health care reform are top on most minds. Congress has done very little to address the concerns of the public, and some have so much as turned their back on their constituents. The President, for all his rhetoric, has yet to show the resolve he needs to get the job done.

The people of this great nation are angry. They will not be ignored any longer. That is why Martha Coakley lost the election. She, a Democrat, running for the Senate seat held by two of the most prominent Democrats in history, in a Democrat stronghold (although most Massachusetts voters are independent) thought she had it in the bag. A couple of months ago Coakley led her opponents by 30 points. But she underestimated her prospective constituents.

Scott Brown appealed to the voters. He even campaigned against the health care measures that the Democrats have held so near and dear - to the point where they believe we should hold near and dear.

President Obama has publicly staked his presidency on health care reform. Unfortunately, the Democrats have put so much into their versions of the bill that have nothing to do with fixing the problems and more about paying each other for votes.

Health care needs to be reformed - the vast majority of Americans get that. What we don't get is all the crap that the Democrats have added.

Scott Brown was elected because he gets it. And I believe he has been elected just in time, before the people in charge (who don't get it) have a chance to really screw things up.

This is a turning point. There has to be compromise on the big issues that face us, and frankly there are some folks - both Democrat AND Republican - who need to figure that out real quick or they will be out of a job this time next year. If things stay pretty much at a stalemate as they are now, I believe there will be a lot of turnover in the Congress. And that will not be good for the President.

During the last presidential campaign, Mr. Obama was criticized for his lack of experience. A year after his inauguration, he is living up to those criticisms. This would be a real good time to step and show some leadership, and embrace true compromise (which will have to involve Republicans). Otherwise after November's elections, it may be too late, especially if the Democrats sustain heavy losses.

Yes, this is a turning point. One for the President to take leadership. Or for him and his party to forfeit it. The people have spoken. They will not be ignored.

Health Care: The Real Issues

With all the heated debate regarding health care, it's time I weighed in.

Like the tea parties I commented a few months back, I think there is not enough focus. Not on just one side but perhaps both sides.

And just like the tea parties, the focus needs to be on overspending.

What good is it to have the finest medical technology in the world if the average American can't afford to use it? There is a lot of irresponsibility and blame to be focused on several parties.

INSURANCE COMPANIES SAY THEY AREN'T THE BAD GUYS

Well, that's what they say. But let's be honest. They are. It is quite apparent that, given the opportunity, the insurance companies cannot be trusted to police themselves, nor can they follow practices that make sense. They brought this mess down upon themselves.

In the face of mounting costs, the insurance industry has done little - if anything - to address the situation. They have failed to lobby our lawmakers to pass reasonable tort reform. They have failed to call out the pharmaceutical companies over ever-increasing drug costs.

Despite overtures to the contrary, the average American has little choice in their insurance carriers. If they are fortunate enough to have an employer that offers insurance, they pretty much can only take what the company offers - if they are really lucky, they have more than one insurer to choose from. And if one wants a different insurance carrier, they have to purchase that on their own - at a substantially higher price. No wonder so many Americans go without.

Insurance companies also have stupid rules. A good example is pre-existing conditions. I have had health insurance under my current employer for 23 years. Thirteen years ago I was diagnosed with type 2 diabetes. If I were to lose my job, I would have to find health insurance on my own - but I could very easily be denied because of my now-pre-existing medical condition. Never mind that it is quite treatable. The insurance companies could care less. Not me. Have you seen the price on the most common medications for diabetes?

Health insurance is also not universal. You may learn that the hard way next time you go to the emergency room. Even though emergency room visits are typically covered, and you may be going to a hospital that is also in-network, and all the drugs they give you are covered, the doctor who treats you may be one who doesn't take your insurance. Guess what? You're stuck paying his fee.

You may also run into the nightmare we ran into with my wife a few years back. She had been suffering repeated attacks of acute pancreatitis. She was under treatment for a couple years under one particular specialist who realized that her problem was beyond her expertise. So she referred her to another specialist who performed additional diagnostic tests and treatments which eventually relieved her condition, and she actually began to heal. Unfortunately, our insurer at the time (despite having told us they would cover the procedure) did not cover the procedure after all. They claimed this was a routine procedure that could have been handled by the previous doctor. Thanks to United Healthcare (I mention their name because this is NOT slander), we had to pay about $11,000 out of our own pockets. Instead of paying $11,000 to heal my wife, United Healthcare was satisfied to keep paying for numerous hospitalization (each costing well into five figures, and even a 3-week stay in the ICU which was into six figures) I would guess these hospitalizations cost insurance over a quarter million dollars).

Insurance needs to universal and not be denied due to pre-existing conditions that are treatable.

DOCTORS ARE ONLY HUMAN

As a society we expect doctors to be able to cure everything. The fact is they take care of most things. One also has to take a physician's speciality into account. Dermatologists tend to have a high success/low mortality rate. Oncologists have the opposite. That's the nature of human physiology.

Believe it or not, doctors don't know everything, and they can't accurately diagnose everything. If you don't believe that, watch Mystery Diagnosis on the Discovery Health Channel sometime. I think you'll be appalled at how simple, treatable conditions get missed by doctors all the time.

Despite that, I think we can trust our physicians to do their jobs. Just because a rash doesn't clear up as quickly as a patient would like - that does not constitute malpractice. If - on the other hand - a surgeon who does something blatant such as leaving a sponge in an incision or amputating the wrong limb is fair game.

PHARMACEUTICAL COMPANIES - THE REAL DRUG LORDS

Have you noticed all the advertisements for all kinds of drugs? What a creative way to hook potential users! And it's all legal!

The pharmaceutical companies push their drugs on us and justify their exorbitant prices to fund their research. They invent diseases that their drugs will cure and send gullible patients to their doctors to convince them they have this dreaded disease. There's even a prescription mascara for those who can't grow enough of their own eyelashes!!!!

The Food and Drug Administration is of no help. In fact they are likely in league with the drug companies.

And you would think that if they are spending so many billions on research, they would get it right. Apparently that is not the case, either. How many "wonder" drugs have we seen advertised only to be followed by an ad on daytime TV a few years later: "If you or your loved one has been seriously injured after taking ______, call the law offices of _____, _____ & _____." That happens WAY too much.

TORT REFORM WOULDN'T BE A BAD IDEA, EITHER

One way to bring about true health care reform would be some real tort reform. As I stated above, some malpractice suits are legitimate. Many are frivolous. The health care system is not your ATM.

SO WHAT SHOULD WE DO?

I have to agree with most Americans that we can't do nothing. But the health care reform legislation being mulled around in Congress simply goes way too far.

And where is the talk about overspending? Or is Congress still giddy with excitement over the stimulus bills and cash-for-clunkers. Our treasury is not your ATM machine.

We cannot just throw money at the problem. We simply have to get costs under control.

The ideas I outlined above are a good start.

WE NEED A GOOD OLD FASHIONED CONGRESSIONAL HEARING

I remember the Watergate hearings when I was lot younger. Those were pretty exciting. Got some people in hot water - people who needed to be in hot water - right up to the President himself. Changed things for the better in the long run.

We need to the same thing again. Let's start off by serving subpoenas to the CEOs of the pharmaceutical companies. Let's haul their asses in front of a nationally-televised Senate hearing and make them explain to the American people why drug prices or so high and why their research sucks. Let's get their names and make them famous. And let's see where that leads us next.

LET'S GET REAL

There's a lot of healthy debate, and that's a good thing.

But remember, the health care system can't heal you. Your doctor is specially trained to promote your healing. Your nurse is trained to - well - nurse you to health. Your drugs are created to alter body chemistry - for good AND for bad. But the real healing is within you and - if you are so blessed - from God - a source no one can or ever will be able to manipulate. No matter how this turns out, no government can ever take that away from you.

It's "Official" - President of Iran is Reelected

The election results are official - Iranian President Ahmadinejad has been reelected. There's just a little problem - there's a lot of Iranians who don't believe that.

And now we are seeing an historic event - a revolution perhaps - unfolding in Iran. The threat seems very real to those in power. There are many messages, photos, and videos going out on computers, phones, and other devices on such media as Twitter and Facebook. And now the government there is jamming those.

There have been arrests, injuries, and deaths, including one young woman who was killed by security forces. All in all, a dictatorship in action.

What will happen in the days, weeks, and months ahead is yet to be seen. This is exciting, scary, and hopeful all at once. Word still gets out and around within Iran's borders.

Tea Party

I went to the Tea Party held at the Arizona State Capitol on Wednesday. There was quite a crowd there, along with posters, signs, flags, and high spirits.

There were some logistical concerns, though. The sound system, provided by a local radio news station - ironically - was inadequate. Unless you were standing right in front of the booth, you didn't hear any of the speakers. All you could hear was cheering from the crowd that was within earshot, followed by cheering from those who cheered because everyone else was cheering.

I was also disappointed with the lack of focus. My impression is that these protests are supposed to be against runaway government spending and the taxes that support it. There were also signs supporting just about about everything on the conservative agenda, from abortion, gun rights, flat tax initiatives, immigration, etc. While these are important issues, they tend to distract from the primary issue of runaway spending.

I was, however, impressed by the kind of people I saw participating in this protest. They were normal folks of all ages, from children to seniors, and of all races and creeds. That was heartwarming.

I just hope this movement isn't running out of steam before it even gets started. It is becoming apparent that the current administration is concerned. Those of us who attended these tea parties are being labeled by Homeland Security Secretary (and former AZ governor) Janet Napolitano as right-wing extremists. That couldn't be farther from the truth.

Washington needs to listen. The consequences, I fear, could be much worse.

Tax Revolt - The New Tea Party

This is awesome. Turns out that this little tirade against our inept elected officials in Washington has inspired a wave of tax revolts - Tea Parties - across the U.S. There are many planned for April 15 - I plan to be there for the one in Phoenix.

Common Sense and the Economy

For the powers that be in Washington it would seem that the best solution to our current economic situation is drain the treasury. It is common knowledge that a vast majority in Congress is a bunch of incompetent idiots who care more for their own personal interests than those they were elected to serve and protect. The jury is still out on President Obama. Sure, he's a great orator (when he's reading a teleprompter) but does he really have the resolve - or the ability, for that matter - to fix our nation's most pressing problems?

Yet Congress moves on as usual, throwing more money around than is necessary. After all, do we really need to research the mating habits of salamanders?

But I experienced a glimmer of hope over some news from the past week. It seems that a few banks want none of money that the government is offering them, and that others want to give it back. These are banks that have operated on sound business practices - like approving mortgages only for people who actually qualified and had the means to pay them back. There are even a couple of states - Louisiana and South Carolina - that refuse to accept the stimulus money being given out by the Federal government.

Granted there are states that really need the stimulus money - like here in Arizona. And especially California.

The media would have us to believe that we are already in another Great Depression. But as John McCain said in his campaign (and even President Obama admits it now), our economy is fundamentally sound. It's nice to see that there others who believe that and are willing to stand up for that belief. It's just common sense.

Hiatus

Man, it's been a real long time since I blogged. So much of nothing has happened. Guess I just didn't feel like it. Got on to Twitter and opened up an account there. Just seems like a more appropriate place to discuss inane things.

Election 2008 - The People Have Spoken

Missouri is still too close to call, but it won't change anything anyway - Barack Obama has won the presidency. Not by an overwhelming margin, but decisively nonetheless.

Starting January 20, we can move forward as a nation under new leadership. What that will look like is anybody's guess. Following this post will be a series of posts where I will share my thoughts on what the Obama administration could mean to us. And while I am disappointed that John McCain will not be our next president, I am thankful that the choice we made as a nation was at least a decisive one, and that we are now free to turn our focus again on the challenges that face us. I will - for the time being - remain cautiously optimistic.

Election Night 2008

_____________________________________________________________________
10:08 pm MST - it's been a long night, but not as long as some imagined. I'm going to bed.
10:07 pm MST - Obama just quoted Lincoln.
9:59 pm MST - Barack Obama is making is acceptance speech in Chicago.
9:28 pm MST - here in Phoenix, John McCain has just a delivered a gracious concession speech.
9:02 pm MST - With the polls closing in California, all the networks have projected that state for Obama, and therefore the presidency. Votes are still being tabulated, but it's over.
8:45 pm MST - Fox just called Virginia for Obama. Looks like Florida will fall, too. With California left, it's over for Mac.
7:36 pm MST - not looking good for Mac.
6:54 pm MST - still no big surprises. Pennsylvania has been projected for Obama. Interesting to see the differences between various news services. CNN seems most reluctant to project. I don't project here until ABC, NBC, CBS, CNN, and FOX are all in consensus (hence the time delay).
6:13 pm MST - no big surprises so far.
5:12 pm MST - Kentucky, Vermont called.
5:06 pm MST - Let the fun begin!

Election 2008: Early Calls

The above map represents, with high certainty, how various states have been called according to my methodology using the AOL Straw Poll.

The higher degree certainty was determined by taking the popular votes in the AOL Straw Poll, dividing it by 538 (total number of electoral votes) and distributing that number to each state accordingly to determine how many popular votes each state should have.

EXAMPLE: AOL Straw Poll shows 53,800 total votes cast. Divide that by 538 electoral votes = 100 popular votes per electoral vote. New Mexico has 5 electoral votes. Multiply that by 100, and New Mexico would have 500 popular votes.

If the AOL Straw Poll shows that a state has at least as many votes counted as were calculated for its distribution (in the above example, New Mexico would have to have at least 500 votes) then there is a higher degree of certainty that the percentages are accurate. Otherwise, if a state is undercounted, there could be a tendency for a state to flip-flop when the actual results come in, especially where the polling numbers are quite close (a good example of that is Minnesota, which I showed red last night, but is now blue. And Minnesota is undercounted - until tonight).

Interestingly, many of the states shown above are the so-called battleground states.

As I've stated before, I don't how accurate my methodology is. I'm curious to find out tonight.

Electoral Count: Election Eve

National Percentage
McCain 57%, Obama 42%, all other responses 1%

Well, here it is, as optimistic as it may seem to most (although if I had used the raw score from AOL, McCain would win with 493 electoral votes - not that I would complain).

There are other factors that could still play into this: The Bradley Effect, the Shy Tory Factor, and the Spiral of Silence.

In my opinion, perhaps the Bradley Effect seems least likely if we are to believe we are less of a racist nation than we were 20 years ago when the term was first attributed to Tom Bradley's unsuccessful run for California governor. In fact, some suggest that Obama secured his nomination due to a "reverse" Bradley Effect. However the Bradley Effect has never been tested on a national level. Personally I don't consider myself a racist nor do I know of too many who are. But I know there's a few out there. We have seen racially-motivated incidents during this campaign (which have been mostly targeted against blacks), and charges of entire areas that are described as racist in general. Unfortunately, if Obama loses this election, many will blame it on racism.

The Shy Tory Factor refers to conservatives in the UK - and it seems to apply here as well - whose share of the vote turns out to be significantly higher than what was originally reported in the polls prior to the election and during the exit polls. Simply put, conservatives tend not to share their voting intentions in public. Polling methodology in the UK has been altered since the 1992 election. If the polls here in US turn out to be substantially off from the actual results, perhaps the methodology will change here, too.

The Spiral of Silence is most intriguing to me, especially since I feel we are experiencing this during this election more than at any other time before. This theory states that one is less likely to voice their opinion if they feel they are in the minority and they feel "fear of reprisal or isolation from the the majority." Mass media determines what they believe to be the dominant opinion and begin asserting that opinion on the electorate to high degree. Interestingly enough, the Spiral of Silence pertains only to moral issues.

Hence our current presidential election. Many believe that this is not just a contest between two candidates, but a choice between moral and ideological issues. It is highly-charged emotionally. There are people who have been shot just for wearing a McCain t-shirt (or claiming to have been beaten by a black man for wearing a McCain t-shirt). There is a decided bias against all Republican candidates (regardless of office). All of this frenzy has been fueled by the mass media. These are all classic examples of a Spiral of Silence. The theory also states that a vocal minority can overcome the the spiral. This year we have Joe the Plumber and PUMAs - even Sarah Palin to some degree - that are speaking up and making us all think.

Me thinks this is definitely an election to remember. I will try and keep you all posted tomorrow during the day and night. For now it is getting late - and Election Day is just minutes away here in the AZ. Good night, and God bless.

source: AOL Straw Poll
see also: Methodology (revised October 3, 2008)

Little Sarah Palin - Cute!

This is short and sweet - only eight seconds - and incredibly cute!

Electoral Count: November 2, 2008

National Percentage
McCain 57%, Obama 42%, all other responses 1%

We have one more day of campaigning left. The popular vote numbers are tightening up on the AOL Straw Poll, but interestingly McCain is not only picking up the so-called battleground states we've heard so much about, but also Maine, Oregon, and Minnesota! Is the word getting out?

Now if that's some sort of fluke and we give those states back to Obama, McCain still wins.

It's also interesting to note that Obama went back to Iowa this weekend - a state that everyone thought he thought he had in the bag. If that's truly the case, why go back? It makes his advertising blitz here in Arizona over the weekend look like a diversionary tactic.

As it is getting late, I will comment more tomorrow night and make one more electoral count prediction before going into Tuesday.

source: AOL Straw Poll
see also: Methodology (revised October 3, 2008)

Are You Better Off Now With Obama's Tax Cut Than You Were Just A Couple Weeks Ago?

Remember how Barack Obama promised a tax cut for anyone making under $250,000? Now that number is being reported to be as low as $120,000.

So let me ask you: Are you better off now with Obama's tax cut than you were just a couple of weeks ago?

Dear Mr. Obama

Angry Taxpayer: Why I Won't Vote for Obama

I read a comment from an Obama apologist on the Fox News website stating that he didn't mind paying taxes. I guess he was feeling patriotic.

I do have to agree with him on that point, however. As he stated, he wants good schools for his children. I, too, want my grandchildren to have a good quality education. Also, I want police and fire departments to keep me safe and good roads and highways to drive on. I want my garbage picked up and I want nice parks to relax in. There are plenty of good things that our taxes pay for.

On the other hand, I want my governments (national, state, and local) to be responsible enough to spend money within their means. I resent having to pay taxes to cover bad mortgages underwritten by financial institutions to people who neither qualified nor had the means to pay back the money they owed. I resent having to pay welfare to leeches who are capable of working but won't get a job; instead they stay home, get loaded, get high, and/or make more babies that we ultimately have to care of. I resent paying taxes when the oil companies gouge us at the gas pumps and get tax breaks. I resent paying for auto manufacturers who refuse to retool their factories and actually produce fuel-efficient vehicles (or vehicles that run on alternative fuels - gee, what a concept!). I resent paying taxes while companies who outsource overseas get tax breaks - and we are stuck buying imported products off our store shelves that are inferior - and even deadly. I resent getting service through those same companies that is also inferior because the person on the other end of the line hasn't mastered the English language enough to actually hold a decent conversation. I resent my tax money going to research grants to pharmaceutical companies that gouge us at the drug store, claiming the money goes to more research (which they can't even get right as evidenced by the body count from those taking their poison). I resent paying the salaries of all those slobs in Congress who don't pass any meaningful legislation that will get our nation past the troubles we face and who look the other way when institutions like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are committing outright fraud. And I resent paying for programs that I find morally reprehensible (where's MY line-item veto!).

And here comes sweet-talking Barack Obama. He's got some nice dreams. But you can't promise the moon if it's not yours to give.

He is inexperienced and untested. He has not written a single piece of legislation, despite serving as a US Senator (during a term has hasn't even completed). Obama even admitted, back in 2004: "I should not run for President in 2008." So what changed? Even his own running mate had called him out on his inexperience.

His foreign policy is a disaster. Is he just making nice with our enemies? Or is he pandering to them?

He is way too liberal. Granted, after eight years of the ultra-right George W. Bush, our country is ready to swing its collective pendulum back to the left. A little. But Barack Obama? I don't think the country is ready for that. John McCain will bring us more to a comfortable middle.

Let's be honest. We just don't know the man. He has ties with a lot of people who are less than model citizens. Unfortunately, when you try to bring that up, the Obama camp just gets evasive and defensive. It's hard to know what kind of man he is. Some say he's Muslim. He says he's Christian. But when you look at the church he's attended for the last 20 years - with its pastor preaching hateful rhetoric that is clearly racist - even the casual observer - let alone a fellow Christian - has to question Obama's faith. Then there's his two memoirs - one geared to a black audience, and the other to a white audience. But the same story? Really?

I know McCain, warts and all. Having him serve as a Congressman and a Senator representing my home state doesn't hurt, either. I know where he stands, and he shares most of my values.

Obama shares my values only when it suits him politically. I don't really know the man. I suspect that very few do. Besides, he hasn't paid his dues yet. Maybe someday, if he ever comes around to proving himself. But not now. Especially not now.

Presidential Polls vs. Real Results

There is a lot of attention to the presidential polls in the news media every day - yes, even every hour. And many of the polls show that Obama is winning. Or is he?

I found a very interesting article on the blog American Thinker that goes into detail why polling is so flawed and - ultimately - inaccurate.

Since our liberal news media is decidedly slanted to the Democrats, the polls they conduct are also slanted likewise. And interestingly enough, even when there are polls indicating the Republicans are leading, those are largely ignored by the press.

A few have gone out on a limb and said that Obama will win in a landslide. McCain appears to be surging (even the polls conducted by the press are showing that). I think it will be McCain in a squeaker reminiscent of the last two presidential elections. And perhaps there will be a surprise or two - which will make for a good spanking for Obama. We will see in five days.