Electoral Count: Election Eve
National Percentage
McCain 57%, Obama 42%, all other responses 1%
Well, here it is, as optimistic as it may seem to most (although if I had used the raw score from AOL, McCain would win with 493 electoral votes - not that I would complain).
There are other factors that could still play into this: The Bradley Effect, the Shy Tory Factor, and the Spiral of Silence.
In my opinion, perhaps the Bradley Effect seems least likely if we are to believe we are less of a racist nation than we were 20 years ago when the term was first attributed to Tom Bradley's unsuccessful run for California governor. In fact, some suggest that Obama secured his nomination due to a "reverse" Bradley Effect. However the Bradley Effect has never been tested on a national level. Personally I don't consider myself a racist nor do I know of too many who are. But I know there's a few out there. We have seen racially-motivated incidents during this campaign (which have been mostly targeted against blacks), and charges of entire areas that are described as racist in general. Unfortunately, if Obama loses this election, many will blame it on racism.
There are other factors that could still play into this: The Bradley Effect, the Shy Tory Factor, and the Spiral of Silence.
In my opinion, perhaps the Bradley Effect seems least likely if we are to believe we are less of a racist nation than we were 20 years ago when the term was first attributed to Tom Bradley's unsuccessful run for California governor. In fact, some suggest that Obama secured his nomination due to a "reverse" Bradley Effect. However the Bradley Effect has never been tested on a national level. Personally I don't consider myself a racist nor do I know of too many who are. But I know there's a few out there. We have seen racially-motivated incidents during this campaign (which have been mostly targeted against blacks), and charges of entire areas that are described as racist in general. Unfortunately, if Obama loses this election, many will blame it on racism.
The Shy Tory Factor refers to conservatives in the UK - and it seems to apply here as well - whose share of the vote turns out to be significantly higher than what was originally reported in the polls prior to the election and during the exit polls. Simply put, conservatives tend not to share their voting intentions in public. Polling methodology in the UK has been altered since the 1992 election. If the polls here in US turn out to be substantially off from the actual results, perhaps the methodology will change here, too.
The Spiral of Silence is most intriguing to me, especially since I feel we are experiencing this during this election more than at any other time before. This theory states that one is less likely to voice their opinion if they feel they are in the minority and they feel "fear of reprisal or isolation from the the majority." Mass media determines what they believe to be the dominant opinion and begin asserting that opinion on the electorate to high degree. Interestingly enough, the Spiral of Silence pertains only to moral issues.
Hence our current presidential election. Many believe that this is not just a contest between two candidates, but a choice between moral and ideological issues. It is highly-charged emotionally. There are people who have been shot just for wearing a McCain t-shirt (or claiming to have been beaten by a black man for wearing a McCain t-shirt). There is a decided bias against all Republican candidates (regardless of office). All of this frenzy has been fueled by the mass media. These are all classic examples of a Spiral of Silence. The theory also states that a vocal minority can overcome the the spiral. This year we have Joe the Plumber and PUMAs - even Sarah Palin to some degree - that are speaking up and making us all think.
Me thinks this is definitely an election to remember. I will try and keep you all posted tomorrow during the day and night. For now it is getting late - and Election Day is just minutes away here in the AZ. Good night, and God bless.
The Spiral of Silence is most intriguing to me, especially since I feel we are experiencing this during this election more than at any other time before. This theory states that one is less likely to voice their opinion if they feel they are in the minority and they feel "fear of reprisal or isolation from the the majority." Mass media determines what they believe to be the dominant opinion and begin asserting that opinion on the electorate to high degree. Interestingly enough, the Spiral of Silence pertains only to moral issues.
Hence our current presidential election. Many believe that this is not just a contest between two candidates, but a choice between moral and ideological issues. It is highly-charged emotionally. There are people who have been shot just for wearing a McCain t-shirt (or claiming to have been beaten by a black man for wearing a McCain t-shirt). There is a decided bias against all Republican candidates (regardless of office). All of this frenzy has been fueled by the mass media. These are all classic examples of a Spiral of Silence. The theory also states that a vocal minority can overcome the the spiral. This year we have Joe the Plumber and PUMAs - even Sarah Palin to some degree - that are speaking up and making us all think.
Me thinks this is definitely an election to remember. I will try and keep you all posted tomorrow during the day and night. For now it is getting late - and Election Day is just minutes away here in the AZ. Good night, and God bless.
source: AOL Straw Poll
see also: Methodology (revised October 3, 2008)
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