Counting the Vote: My Methodology
Recently, I've gotten interested in the AOL Straw Poll. Not that it is terribly scientific, but because I believe I have found that with some simple adjustments, it may actually reflect what's going on out there. So I'm conducting this little experiment to see how close it is. Of course the true test will be after the actual votes are counted on November 4.
My Methodology
If I were to follow the raw data on America Online, it would be totally unrealistic. Today, for example, the whole map would be red except for Maine and DC. Surely there are plenty of liberal Democrats out there who would muster considerably more than the seven electoral votes than what today's numbers represent (it's no wonder why they whine and complain on the comments section on how unfair and inaccurate AOL's poll is).
So I tweak the numbers. First I note what the national percentages are and who the leader is. Then I check the results from each state. If the percentage is greater than or equal to that of the national leader, I award that state to the leader. For example, in last week's poll, John McCain was the leader at 60%. Any state where 60% or more of its votes went to McCain was awarded to McCain on the electoral vote map.
REVISION EFFECTIVE OCTOBER 3rd
America Online has revised the Straw Poll to include presidential candidates from other parties or who are running as independents. They are also counting undecided votes. This is good news as I feel it is an even more accurate gauge of what's going on. As a result, my methodology is also slightly changed.
If, when checking the results from each state, the leader does not have a percentage equal or greater to the national average, then I compare the national average of the runner-up. If the runner-up has a percentage of that state's votes that is equal or greater than that of the national average, then that state's electoral votes are awarded to the runner-up (otherwise they are awarded to the leader).
Here are some examples: In this week's poll so far, McCain leads with a percentage of 54% of the straw poll vote nationally. Obama has a percentage of 42%. Example 1: In New Hampshire, McCain has 53% of the votes in the straw poll. Prior to the revision, New Hampshire would have gone to Obama automatically. But now we compare Obama's numbers; he has 43% of the vote. New Hampshire still goes to Obama. Example 2: In Utah, McCain has 50% of the vote, which is not even close prior to the revision. However, when we compare Obama's numbers, he only has 41% of the vote (he would need 42%); therefore Utah goes to McCain anyway.
Anomolies
As with any polling method, there is a margin of error. Surprisingly (or not) these results have been fairly close to what everybody else's polls have been saying with only a few exceptions. With the revision to AOL's Straw Poll and to my methodology, I expect fewer anomalies.
One of those exceptions, strangely enough, was Alaska. Maybe those in Alaska who have internet tend to be Obama supporters. Or perhaps, it's been a long time since the other polls have taken place in Alaska, and really are turning blue.
I've even seen a few traditionally red states turn blue. But who knows? Perhaps that has really been happening.
One factor I have not considered in my methodology is the number of votes in each state. For example, Colorado and Alabama each have nine electoral votes. As of a few seconds ago, Colorado shows 4,300 have cast their vote on AOL. But in Alabama, over 13,000 have voted. Doesn't quite sound fair, does it?
But I have seen some of the battleground states switch back and forth between candidates, just like all the other polls. So maybe I'm not too far off.
Sharing My Results
Over the next several weeks until the election is over and the real votes are counted, I will be posting my my results in this blog. I will state the source of my data, how I came up with the results, and also post a link to a site (maintained by the L.A. Times) showing a map of how the states voted.
Enjoy. And PLEASE, PLEASE, PLEASE take the opportunity these next 44 days to study the candidates and what they stand for and make an informed decision before casting your ballot.
Stay brave, stay free.
My Methodology
If I were to follow the raw data on America Online, it would be totally unrealistic. Today, for example, the whole map would be red except for Maine and DC. Surely there are plenty of liberal Democrats out there who would muster considerably more than the seven electoral votes than what today's numbers represent (it's no wonder why they whine and complain on the comments section on how unfair and inaccurate AOL's poll is).
So I tweak the numbers. First I note what the national percentages are and who the leader is. Then I check the results from each state. If the percentage is greater than or equal to that of the national leader, I award that state to the leader. For example, in last week's poll, John McCain was the leader at 60%. Any state where 60% or more of its votes went to McCain was awarded to McCain on the electoral vote map.
REVISION EFFECTIVE OCTOBER 3rd
America Online has revised the Straw Poll to include presidential candidates from other parties or who are running as independents. They are also counting undecided votes. This is good news as I feel it is an even more accurate gauge of what's going on. As a result, my methodology is also slightly changed.
If, when checking the results from each state, the leader does not have a percentage equal or greater to the national average, then I compare the national average of the runner-up. If the runner-up has a percentage of that state's votes that is equal or greater than that of the national average, then that state's electoral votes are awarded to the runner-up (otherwise they are awarded to the leader).
Here are some examples: In this week's poll so far, McCain leads with a percentage of 54% of the straw poll vote nationally. Obama has a percentage of 42%. Example 1: In New Hampshire, McCain has 53% of the votes in the straw poll. Prior to the revision, New Hampshire would have gone to Obama automatically. But now we compare Obama's numbers; he has 43% of the vote. New Hampshire still goes to Obama. Example 2: In Utah, McCain has 50% of the vote, which is not even close prior to the revision. However, when we compare Obama's numbers, he only has 41% of the vote (he would need 42%); therefore Utah goes to McCain anyway.
Anomolies
As with any polling method, there is a margin of error. Surprisingly (or not) these results have been fairly close to what everybody else's polls have been saying with only a few exceptions. With the revision to AOL's Straw Poll and to my methodology, I expect fewer anomalies.
One of those exceptions, strangely enough, was Alaska. Maybe those in Alaska who have internet tend to be Obama supporters. Or perhaps, it's been a long time since the other polls have taken place in Alaska, and really are turning blue.
I've even seen a few traditionally red states turn blue. But who knows? Perhaps that has really been happening.
One factor I have not considered in my methodology is the number of votes in each state. For example, Colorado and Alabama each have nine electoral votes. As of a few seconds ago, Colorado shows 4,300 have cast their vote on AOL. But in Alabama, over 13,000 have voted. Doesn't quite sound fair, does it?
But I have seen some of the battleground states switch back and forth between candidates, just like all the other polls. So maybe I'm not too far off.
Sharing My Results
Over the next several weeks until the election is over and the real votes are counted, I will be posting my my results in this blog. I will state the source of my data, how I came up with the results, and also post a link to a site (maintained by the L.A. Times) showing a map of how the states voted.
Enjoy. And PLEASE, PLEASE, PLEASE take the opportunity these next 44 days to study the candidates and what they stand for and make an informed decision before casting your ballot.
Stay brave, stay free.
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