It's "Official" - President of Iran is Reelected

The election results are official - Iranian President Ahmadinejad has been reelected. There's just a little problem - there's a lot of Iranians who don't believe that.

And now we are seeing an historic event - a revolution perhaps - unfolding in Iran. The threat seems very real to those in power. There are many messages, photos, and videos going out on computers, phones, and other devices on such media as Twitter and Facebook. And now the government there is jamming those.

There have been arrests, injuries, and deaths, including one young woman who was killed by security forces. All in all, a dictatorship in action.

What will happen in the days, weeks, and months ahead is yet to be seen. This is exciting, scary, and hopeful all at once. Word still gets out and around within Iran's borders.

Tea Party

I went to the Tea Party held at the Arizona State Capitol on Wednesday. There was quite a crowd there, along with posters, signs, flags, and high spirits.

There were some logistical concerns, though. The sound system, provided by a local radio news station - ironically - was inadequate. Unless you were standing right in front of the booth, you didn't hear any of the speakers. All you could hear was cheering from the crowd that was within earshot, followed by cheering from those who cheered because everyone else was cheering.

I was also disappointed with the lack of focus. My impression is that these protests are supposed to be against runaway government spending and the taxes that support it. There were also signs supporting just about about everything on the conservative agenda, from abortion, gun rights, flat tax initiatives, immigration, etc. While these are important issues, they tend to distract from the primary issue of runaway spending.

I was, however, impressed by the kind of people I saw participating in this protest. They were normal folks of all ages, from children to seniors, and of all races and creeds. That was heartwarming.

I just hope this movement isn't running out of steam before it even gets started. It is becoming apparent that the current administration is concerned. Those of us who attended these tea parties are being labeled by Homeland Security Secretary (and former AZ governor) Janet Napolitano as right-wing extremists. That couldn't be farther from the truth.

Washington needs to listen. The consequences, I fear, could be much worse.

Tax Revolt - The New Tea Party

This is awesome. Turns out that this little tirade against our inept elected officials in Washington has inspired a wave of tax revolts - Tea Parties - across the U.S. There are many planned for April 15 - I plan to be there for the one in Phoenix.

Common Sense and the Economy

For the powers that be in Washington it would seem that the best solution to our current economic situation is drain the treasury. It is common knowledge that a vast majority in Congress is a bunch of incompetent idiots who care more for their own personal interests than those they were elected to serve and protect. The jury is still out on President Obama. Sure, he's a great orator (when he's reading a teleprompter) but does he really have the resolve - or the ability, for that matter - to fix our nation's most pressing problems?

Yet Congress moves on as usual, throwing more money around than is necessary. After all, do we really need to research the mating habits of salamanders?

But I experienced a glimmer of hope over some news from the past week. It seems that a few banks want none of money that the government is offering them, and that others want to give it back. These are banks that have operated on sound business practices - like approving mortgages only for people who actually qualified and had the means to pay them back. There are even a couple of states - Louisiana and South Carolina - that refuse to accept the stimulus money being given out by the Federal government.

Granted there are states that really need the stimulus money - like here in Arizona. And especially California.

The media would have us to believe that we are already in another Great Depression. But as John McCain said in his campaign (and even President Obama admits it now), our economy is fundamentally sound. It's nice to see that there others who believe that and are willing to stand up for that belief. It's just common sense.

Hiatus

Man, it's been a real long time since I blogged. So much of nothing has happened. Guess I just didn't feel like it. Got on to Twitter and opened up an account there. Just seems like a more appropriate place to discuss inane things.

Election 2008 - The People Have Spoken

Missouri is still too close to call, but it won't change anything anyway - Barack Obama has won the presidency. Not by an overwhelming margin, but decisively nonetheless.

Starting January 20, we can move forward as a nation under new leadership. What that will look like is anybody's guess. Following this post will be a series of posts where I will share my thoughts on what the Obama administration could mean to us. And while I am disappointed that John McCain will not be our next president, I am thankful that the choice we made as a nation was at least a decisive one, and that we are now free to turn our focus again on the challenges that face us. I will - for the time being - remain cautiously optimistic.

Election Night 2008

_____________________________________________________________________
10:08 pm MST - it's been a long night, but not as long as some imagined. I'm going to bed.
10:07 pm MST - Obama just quoted Lincoln.
9:59 pm MST - Barack Obama is making is acceptance speech in Chicago.
9:28 pm MST - here in Phoenix, John McCain has just a delivered a gracious concession speech.
9:02 pm MST - With the polls closing in California, all the networks have projected that state for Obama, and therefore the presidency. Votes are still being tabulated, but it's over.
8:45 pm MST - Fox just called Virginia for Obama. Looks like Florida will fall, too. With California left, it's over for Mac.
7:36 pm MST - not looking good for Mac.
6:54 pm MST - still no big surprises. Pennsylvania has been projected for Obama. Interesting to see the differences between various news services. CNN seems most reluctant to project. I don't project here until ABC, NBC, CBS, CNN, and FOX are all in consensus (hence the time delay).
6:13 pm MST - no big surprises so far.
5:12 pm MST - Kentucky, Vermont called.
5:06 pm MST - Let the fun begin!

Election 2008: Early Calls

The above map represents, with high certainty, how various states have been called according to my methodology using the AOL Straw Poll.

The higher degree certainty was determined by taking the popular votes in the AOL Straw Poll, dividing it by 538 (total number of electoral votes) and distributing that number to each state accordingly to determine how many popular votes each state should have.

EXAMPLE: AOL Straw Poll shows 53,800 total votes cast. Divide that by 538 electoral votes = 100 popular votes per electoral vote. New Mexico has 5 electoral votes. Multiply that by 100, and New Mexico would have 500 popular votes.

If the AOL Straw Poll shows that a state has at least as many votes counted as were calculated for its distribution (in the above example, New Mexico would have to have at least 500 votes) then there is a higher degree of certainty that the percentages are accurate. Otherwise, if a state is undercounted, there could be a tendency for a state to flip-flop when the actual results come in, especially where the polling numbers are quite close (a good example of that is Minnesota, which I showed red last night, but is now blue. And Minnesota is undercounted - until tonight).

Interestingly, many of the states shown above are the so-called battleground states.

As I've stated before, I don't how accurate my methodology is. I'm curious to find out tonight.

Electoral Count: Election Eve

National Percentage
McCain 57%, Obama 42%, all other responses 1%

Well, here it is, as optimistic as it may seem to most (although if I had used the raw score from AOL, McCain would win with 493 electoral votes - not that I would complain).

There are other factors that could still play into this: The Bradley Effect, the Shy Tory Factor, and the Spiral of Silence.

In my opinion, perhaps the Bradley Effect seems least likely if we are to believe we are less of a racist nation than we were 20 years ago when the term was first attributed to Tom Bradley's unsuccessful run for California governor. In fact, some suggest that Obama secured his nomination due to a "reverse" Bradley Effect. However the Bradley Effect has never been tested on a national level. Personally I don't consider myself a racist nor do I know of too many who are. But I know there's a few out there. We have seen racially-motivated incidents during this campaign (which have been mostly targeted against blacks), and charges of entire areas that are described as racist in general. Unfortunately, if Obama loses this election, many will blame it on racism.

The Shy Tory Factor refers to conservatives in the UK - and it seems to apply here as well - whose share of the vote turns out to be significantly higher than what was originally reported in the polls prior to the election and during the exit polls. Simply put, conservatives tend not to share their voting intentions in public. Polling methodology in the UK has been altered since the 1992 election. If the polls here in US turn out to be substantially off from the actual results, perhaps the methodology will change here, too.

The Spiral of Silence is most intriguing to me, especially since I feel we are experiencing this during this election more than at any other time before. This theory states that one is less likely to voice their opinion if they feel they are in the minority and they feel "fear of reprisal or isolation from the the majority." Mass media determines what they believe to be the dominant opinion and begin asserting that opinion on the electorate to high degree. Interestingly enough, the Spiral of Silence pertains only to moral issues.

Hence our current presidential election. Many believe that this is not just a contest between two candidates, but a choice between moral and ideological issues. It is highly-charged emotionally. There are people who have been shot just for wearing a McCain t-shirt (or claiming to have been beaten by a black man for wearing a McCain t-shirt). There is a decided bias against all Republican candidates (regardless of office). All of this frenzy has been fueled by the mass media. These are all classic examples of a Spiral of Silence. The theory also states that a vocal minority can overcome the the spiral. This year we have Joe the Plumber and PUMAs - even Sarah Palin to some degree - that are speaking up and making us all think.

Me thinks this is definitely an election to remember. I will try and keep you all posted tomorrow during the day and night. For now it is getting late - and Election Day is just minutes away here in the AZ. Good night, and God bless.

source: AOL Straw Poll
see also: Methodology (revised October 3, 2008)

Little Sarah Palin - Cute!

This is short and sweet - only eight seconds - and incredibly cute!

Electoral Count: November 2, 2008

National Percentage
McCain 57%, Obama 42%, all other responses 1%

We have one more day of campaigning left. The popular vote numbers are tightening up on the AOL Straw Poll, but interestingly McCain is not only picking up the so-called battleground states we've heard so much about, but also Maine, Oregon, and Minnesota! Is the word getting out?

Now if that's some sort of fluke and we give those states back to Obama, McCain still wins.

It's also interesting to note that Obama went back to Iowa this weekend - a state that everyone thought he thought he had in the bag. If that's truly the case, why go back? It makes his advertising blitz here in Arizona over the weekend look like a diversionary tactic.

As it is getting late, I will comment more tomorrow night and make one more electoral count prediction before going into Tuesday.

source: AOL Straw Poll
see also: Methodology (revised October 3, 2008)

Are You Better Off Now With Obama's Tax Cut Than You Were Just A Couple Weeks Ago?

Remember how Barack Obama promised a tax cut for anyone making under $250,000? Now that number is being reported to be as low as $120,000.

So let me ask you: Are you better off now with Obama's tax cut than you were just a couple of weeks ago?

Dear Mr. Obama

Angry Taxpayer: Why I Won't Vote for Obama

I read a comment from an Obama apologist on the Fox News website stating that he didn't mind paying taxes. I guess he was feeling patriotic.

I do have to agree with him on that point, however. As he stated, he wants good schools for his children. I, too, want my grandchildren to have a good quality education. Also, I want police and fire departments to keep me safe and good roads and highways to drive on. I want my garbage picked up and I want nice parks to relax in. There are plenty of good things that our taxes pay for.

On the other hand, I want my governments (national, state, and local) to be responsible enough to spend money within their means. I resent having to pay taxes to cover bad mortgages underwritten by financial institutions to people who neither qualified nor had the means to pay back the money they owed. I resent having to pay welfare to leeches who are capable of working but won't get a job; instead they stay home, get loaded, get high, and/or make more babies that we ultimately have to care of. I resent paying taxes when the oil companies gouge us at the gas pumps and get tax breaks. I resent paying for auto manufacturers who refuse to retool their factories and actually produce fuel-efficient vehicles (or vehicles that run on alternative fuels - gee, what a concept!). I resent paying taxes while companies who outsource overseas get tax breaks - and we are stuck buying imported products off our store shelves that are inferior - and even deadly. I resent getting service through those same companies that is also inferior because the person on the other end of the line hasn't mastered the English language enough to actually hold a decent conversation. I resent my tax money going to research grants to pharmaceutical companies that gouge us at the drug store, claiming the money goes to more research (which they can't even get right as evidenced by the body count from those taking their poison). I resent paying the salaries of all those slobs in Congress who don't pass any meaningful legislation that will get our nation past the troubles we face and who look the other way when institutions like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are committing outright fraud. And I resent paying for programs that I find morally reprehensible (where's MY line-item veto!).

And here comes sweet-talking Barack Obama. He's got some nice dreams. But you can't promise the moon if it's not yours to give.

He is inexperienced and untested. He has not written a single piece of legislation, despite serving as a US Senator (during a term has hasn't even completed). Obama even admitted, back in 2004: "I should not run for President in 2008." So what changed? Even his own running mate had called him out on his inexperience.

His foreign policy is a disaster. Is he just making nice with our enemies? Or is he pandering to them?

He is way too liberal. Granted, after eight years of the ultra-right George W. Bush, our country is ready to swing its collective pendulum back to the left. A little. But Barack Obama? I don't think the country is ready for that. John McCain will bring us more to a comfortable middle.

Let's be honest. We just don't know the man. He has ties with a lot of people who are less than model citizens. Unfortunately, when you try to bring that up, the Obama camp just gets evasive and defensive. It's hard to know what kind of man he is. Some say he's Muslim. He says he's Christian. But when you look at the church he's attended for the last 20 years - with its pastor preaching hateful rhetoric that is clearly racist - even the casual observer - let alone a fellow Christian - has to question Obama's faith. Then there's his two memoirs - one geared to a black audience, and the other to a white audience. But the same story? Really?

I know McCain, warts and all. Having him serve as a Congressman and a Senator representing my home state doesn't hurt, either. I know where he stands, and he shares most of my values.

Obama shares my values only when it suits him politically. I don't really know the man. I suspect that very few do. Besides, he hasn't paid his dues yet. Maybe someday, if he ever comes around to proving himself. But not now. Especially not now.

Presidential Polls vs. Real Results

There is a lot of attention to the presidential polls in the news media every day - yes, even every hour. And many of the polls show that Obama is winning. Or is he?

I found a very interesting article on the blog American Thinker that goes into detail why polling is so flawed and - ultimately - inaccurate.

Since our liberal news media is decidedly slanted to the Democrats, the polls they conduct are also slanted likewise. And interestingly enough, even when there are polls indicating the Republicans are leading, those are largely ignored by the press.

A few have gone out on a limb and said that Obama will win in a landslide. McCain appears to be surging (even the polls conducted by the press are showing that). I think it will be McCain in a squeaker reminiscent of the last two presidential elections. And perhaps there will be a surprise or two - which will make for a good spanking for Obama. We will see in five days.

Electoral Count: October 30, 2008

National Percentage
McCain 61%, Obama 38%, all other responses 1%

My apologies for not posting this last week. Blogger was down last Thursday afternoon and AOL had refreshed their straw poll the next day. Just a matter of timing.

This week's anomaly goes to North Dakota where a whopping 11% of those votes are going to Bob Barr (Libertarian, GA) against McCain's 46% and Obama's 42%. I have awarded that state to Obama, but it's probably more likely to go to McCain. Also, there are only 142 votes from North Dakota out of a total of over 182,000 nationally - so the numbers are statistically very skewed.

One thing I did notice this week is that McCain has gained in every state except for North Dakota (due to the Barr factor), nor has he gained in the District of Columbia. This could be an indication of a "ninth-inning" surge. Should be interesting.

Only five days to go.

source: AOL Straw Poll
see also: Methodology (revised October 3, 2008)

This Election Too Important To Ignore

This comes from our brothers and sisters at CatholicVote.com. You don't have to be Catholic to appreciate this: