Electoral Votes: September 20, 2008
National Percentage:
McCain 62%, Obama 38%
Even as I was writing my last post, the numbers changed. Colorado and New Hampshire - two states that were very close anyway - changed from Obama to McCain. Alaska, a perennial red state is still an anomaly which I had to place as a blue state. But they are getting close anyway with a 61% advantage toward McCain.
As AOL resets the straw poll every Thursday, perhaps Saturday is not a good day to post results as the data has only had two days to refresh.
States to Watch:
Alaska, Colorado, Indiana, Missouri, Nebraska, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Wisconsin.
source: AOL Straw Poll
see also: Methodology
As AOL resets the straw poll every Thursday, perhaps Saturday is not a good day to post results as the data has only had two days to refresh.
States to Watch:
Alaska, Colorado, Indiana, Missouri, Nebraska, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Wisconsin.
source: AOL Straw Poll
see also: Methodology
2 comments:
The current system does not reliably reflect the nationwide popular vote. The statewide winner-take-all rules makes it possible for a candidate to win the Presidency without winning the most popular votes nationwide. This has occurred in one of every 14 presidential elections.
In the past six decades, there have been six presidential elections in which a shift of a relatively small number of votes in one or two states would have elected (and, of course, in 2000, did elect) a presidential candidate who lost the popular vote nationwide.
Nationwide popular election of the President is the only system that makes all states competitive, guarantees that the candidate with the most popular votes nationwide wins the Presidency, and makes every vote equal.
susan
Good points on these last two comments (thank you). I don't necessarily agree with these points, but I respect your point of view.
Just a reminder - the electoral vote system is one that is mandated by the US Constitution. That's also why we have a census every 10 years in order to distribute representation to the US House by population. And of course, we have the right to amend the Constitution, which is what the National Popular Vote bill is trying to accomplish.
One historical point. In 1860, Abraham Lincoln felt he had little chance in the southern states, so he didn't bother campaigning there. Instead he concentrated on the industrial states of the the North - these were the battleground states of the day - and where most of the population was concentrated. As a result, Lincoln won the most popular votes, but that only amounted to 39.8% of the popular vote (please also note that this election was a four-way race). And in each of the ten southern states where he lost, Lincoln did not even get one vote! But he did muster a majority of the electoral vote. History could possibly have turned out differently if there was no electoral college.
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