Missouri is still too close to call, but it won't change anything anyway - Barack Obama has won the presidency. Not by an overwhelming margin, but decisively nonetheless.
Starting January 20, we can move forward as a nation under new leadership. What that will look like is anybody's guess. Following this post will be a series of posts where I will share my thoughts on what the Obama administration could mean to us. And while I am disappointed that John McCain will not be our next president, I am thankful that the choice we made as a nation was at least a decisive one, and that we are now free to turn our focus again on the challenges that face us. I will - for the time being - remain cautiously optimistic.
_____________________________________________________________________ 10:08 pm MST - it's been a long night, but not as long as some imagined. I'm going to bed. 10:07 pm MST - Obama just quoted Lincoln. 9:59 pm MST - Barack Obama is making is acceptance speech in Chicago. 9:28 pm MST - here in Phoenix, John McCain has just a delivered a gracious concession speech. 9:02 pm MST - With the polls closing in California, all the networks have projected that state for Obama, and therefore the presidency. Votes are still being tabulated, but it's over. 8:45 pm MST - Fox just called Virginia for Obama. Looks like Florida will fall, too. With California left, it's over for Mac. 7:36 pm MST - not looking good for Mac. 6:54 pm MST - still no big surprises. Pennsylvania has been projected for Obama. Interesting to see the differences between various news services. CNN seems most reluctant to project. I don't project here until ABC, NBC, CBS, CNN, and FOX are all in consensus (hence the time delay). 6:13 pm MST - no big surprises so far. 5:12 pm MST - Kentucky, Vermont called. 5:06 pm MST - Let the fun begin!
The above map represents, with high certainty, how various states have been called according to my methodology using the AOL Straw Poll.
The higher degree certainty was determined by taking the popular votes in the AOL Straw Poll, dividing it by 538 (total number of electoral votes) and distributing that number to each state accordingly to determine how many popular votes each state should have.
EXAMPLE: AOL Straw Poll shows 53,800 total votes cast. Divide that by 538 electoral votes = 100 popular votes per electoral vote. New Mexico has 5 electoral votes. Multiply that by 100, and New Mexico would have 500 popular votes.
If the AOL Straw Poll shows that a state has at least as many votes counted as were calculated for its distribution (in the above example, New Mexico would have to have at least 500 votes) then there is a higher degree of certainty that the percentages are accurate. Otherwise, if a state is undercounted, there could be a tendency for a state to flip-flop when the actual results come in, especially where the polling numbers are quite close (a good example of that is Minnesota, which I showed red last night, but is now blue. And Minnesota is undercounted - until tonight).
Interestingly, many of the states shown above are the so-called battleground states.
As I've stated before, I don't how accurate my methodology is. I'm curious to find out tonight.
National Percentage McCain 57%, Obama 42%, all other responses 1%
Well, here it is, as optimistic as it may seem to most (although if I had used the raw score from AOL, McCain would win with 493 electoral votes - not that I would complain).
In my opinion, perhaps the Bradley Effect seems least likely if we are to believe we are less of a racist nation than we were 20 years ago when the term was first attributed to Tom Bradley's unsuccessful run for California governor. In fact, some suggest that Obama secured his nomination due to a "reverse" Bradley Effect. However the Bradley Effect has never been tested on a national level. Personally I don't consider myself a racist nor do I know of too many who are. But I know there's a few out there. We have seen racially-motivated incidents during this campaign (which have been mostly targeted against blacks), and charges of entire areas that are described as racist in general. Unfortunately, if Obama loses this election, many will blame it on racism.
The Shy Tory Factor refers to conservatives in the UK - and it seems to apply here as well - whose share of the vote turns out to be significantly higher than what was originally reported in the polls prior to the election and during the exit polls. Simply put, conservatives tend not to share their voting intentions in public. Polling methodology in the UK has been altered since the 1992 election. If the polls here in US turn out to be substantially off from the actual results, perhaps the methodology will change here, too.
The Spiral of Silence is most intriguing to me, especially since I feel we are experiencing this during this election more than at any other time before. This theory states that one is less likely to voice their opinion if they feel they are in the minority and they feel "fear of reprisal or isolation from the the majority." Mass media determines what they believe to be the dominant opinion and begin asserting that opinion on the electorate to high degree. Interestingly enough, the Spiral of Silence pertains only to moral issues.
Hence our current presidential election. Many believe that this is not just a contest between two candidates, but a choice between moral and ideological issues. It is highly-charged emotionally. There are people who have been shot just for wearing a McCain t-shirt (or claiming to have been beaten by a black man for wearing a McCain t-shirt). There is a decided bias against all Republican candidates (regardless of office). All of this frenzy has been fueled by the mass media. These are all classic examples of a Spiral of Silence. The theory also states that a vocal minority can overcome the the spiral. This year we have Joe the Plumber and PUMAs - even Sarah Palin to some degree - that are speaking up and making us all think.
Me thinks this is definitely an election to remember. I will try and keep you all posted tomorrow during the day and night. For now it is getting late - and Election Day is just minutes away here in the AZ. Good night, and God bless.
National Percentage McCain 57%, Obama 42%, all other responses 1%
We have one more day of campaigning left. The popular vote numbers are tightening up on the AOL Straw Poll, but interestingly McCain is not only picking up the so-called battleground states we've heard so much about, but also Maine, Oregon, and Minnesota! Is the word getting out?
Now if that's some sort of fluke and we give those states back to Obama, McCain still wins.
It's also interesting to note that Obama went back to Iowa this weekend - a state that everyone thought he thought he had in the bag. If that's truly the case, why go back? It makes his advertising blitz here in Arizona over the weekend look like a diversionary tactic.
As it is getting late, I will comment more tomorrow night and make one more electoral count prediction before going into Tuesday.
There are many signposts along lifes's narrow way. These are the chronicles of one man who, through trial and error, grace and mercy - and some well-placed signposts - found himself at a fork in the road - and discovered that Jesus the Christ is the Life, the Truth - and the Way. And though he may still stumble and fall on that road, he continues to look onward and upward - as signposts mark the Way.
