Election 2008: Early Calls
The above map represents, with high certainty, how various states have been called according to my methodology using the AOL Straw Poll.
The higher degree certainty was determined by taking the popular votes in the AOL Straw Poll, dividing it by 538 (total number of electoral votes) and distributing that number to each state accordingly to determine how many popular votes each state should have.
EXAMPLE: AOL Straw Poll shows 53,800 total votes cast. Divide that by 538 electoral votes = 100 popular votes per electoral vote. New Mexico has 5 electoral votes. Multiply that by 100, and New Mexico would have 500 popular votes.
If the AOL Straw Poll shows that a state has at least as many votes counted as were calculated for its distribution (in the above example, New Mexico would have to have at least 500 votes) then there is a higher degree of certainty that the percentages are accurate. Otherwise, if a state is undercounted, there could be a tendency for a state to flip-flop when the actual results come in, especially where the polling numbers are quite close (a good example of that is Minnesota, which I showed red last night, but is now blue. And Minnesota is undercounted - until tonight).
Interestingly, many of the states shown above are the so-called battleground states.
As I've stated before, I don't how accurate my methodology is. I'm curious to find out tonight.
The higher degree certainty was determined by taking the popular votes in the AOL Straw Poll, dividing it by 538 (total number of electoral votes) and distributing that number to each state accordingly to determine how many popular votes each state should have.
EXAMPLE: AOL Straw Poll shows 53,800 total votes cast. Divide that by 538 electoral votes = 100 popular votes per electoral vote. New Mexico has 5 electoral votes. Multiply that by 100, and New Mexico would have 500 popular votes.
If the AOL Straw Poll shows that a state has at least as many votes counted as were calculated for its distribution (in the above example, New Mexico would have to have at least 500 votes) then there is a higher degree of certainty that the percentages are accurate. Otherwise, if a state is undercounted, there could be a tendency for a state to flip-flop when the actual results come in, especially where the polling numbers are quite close (a good example of that is Minnesota, which I showed red last night, but is now blue. And Minnesota is undercounted - until tonight).
Interestingly, many of the states shown above are the so-called battleground states.
As I've stated before, I don't how accurate my methodology is. I'm curious to find out tonight.
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