How Congress Voted on the Bailout

Electoral Votes: September 28, 2008

National Percentage
McCain 61%, Obama 39%

Last time I said to watch out for New Jersey - well, they've turned red; this is huge for McCain if this is really true. Alaska is still blue, and Vermont is now red - both of these are anomalous, but they both carry the same number of electoral votes. Colorado is back to red.

source: AOL Straw Poll
see also: Methodology

Ask Not What This Bill Is Going To Do For You...

Ask not what this bill is going to do for you, but what this bill is going to do to your country.

A week ago Treasury Security Henry Paulson met with members of Congress and outlined a story of gloom and doom. He said we have to pass a bill in which American taxpayers will have to pay out $700,000,000,000 to save financial institutions that are failing. He seems to have most of the Democrats in Congress convinced of this. He's even gotten President Bush believing this. And of course the Wall Street economists - the ones whose firms stand to gain from it - endorse Paulson's plan.

Yet there is considerable disagreement with the plan. On Thursday, Senator Richard Shelby (R-AL) presented a petition signed by 200 of our leading economists (who, by the way, are not on the payrolls of those institutions that would benefit from the bailout) objecting to the Paulson plan "on the grounds that it could create perverse incentives, that it is too vague and that its long-run effects are unclear." [source]

As the flow of credit is beginning to freeze, everyone agrees that action needs to be taken. But the Paulson plan is met with much skepticism, especially when one considers how rapidly something like his has been crafted and rammed down our throats with the threat of dire consequences. One economist I heard on the radio was asked point-blank that if this bill wasn't passed, would we see the market crash this week or the next. His answer was "no," and he sounded absolutely confident. Polls indicate also that a majority of Americans are against the Paulson plan as well.

It sounds like this bailout would benefit Paulson and a few other politicians, as well as Wall Street. My hat goes off to those who actually spoke up and to those in Congress who actually listened and refused to go any further without more research.

With all the questions and concerns against this plan, where is Secretary Paulson to defend it? Where are you, Mr. Secretary?

One of my nieces - bless her heart - called the other night to see if we would co-sign on a car loan for her. She's already faced repossession on this same car before. We said no, especially in light of the possibility of co-signing a $700,000,000,000 bailout to Wall Street. After all, she's 32 years old. At that age, one should be financially responsible - not looking for co-signers. She's in a bad spot right now because of poor decisions on her part. Perhaps not having a car for a while will slap some sense in her head and finally she will get her priorities straight.

I wonder if we can do that with Wall Street? Unfortunately, whatever bill gets passed will probably have a little something for the members of Congress who have betrayed us.

I'm Paul, And I Approve This Message

To Debate or Not to Debate?

There's been a lot of criticism leveled at John McCain for requesting postponement of tomorrow night's first presidential debate. He made this request so that he could go to Washington to help with the financial bailout bill which must be agreed upon by the Congress before they go on recess after Friday.

I think McCain's intentions are genuine, and they show that he is taking leadership. Was this a bold political move? You bet. And a brilliant one at that (I could be wrong - but I doubt it).

Apparently, many agree with me. This morning on the news radio station I listen to, there was a guest from Zogby International, one of the premier polling firms. He said that about midway through their polling yesterday, McCain made his announcement. Understandably, this turn of events had an effect on their responses. Fortunately, Zogby had a statistically sufficient number of response both before and after McCain's announcement. Before the announcement, McCain's numbers were trailing as they had been all week. But after the announcement, his numbers were making double-digit gains, and once again, McCain held a slim lead over Obama [latest Zogby poll].

Personally, I think postponing the debate is the right thing to do. Deeds, not words, are what we need right now.

Financial Bailout: Still No Deal

Today's summit to hammer out details over a $700,000,000,000 package to rescue America's failing financial institutions only showed that opposing sides agreed to disagree. [story] Meanwhile, an entire nation continues to hold its collective breath.

There's a lot of posturing and finger-pointing as to how we got this far. But it's time to get past that and figure out a way to get out of this. I don't usually agree with CNN's Glenn Beck, but he make a good point here [full article]: "Unfortunately, [Treasury Secretary Paulson's] right. In fact, it would have to take an absolute disaster to make me even consider supporting something like this. Welcome to that absolute disaster."

We are in a much worse situation now than we were when the market crashed in 1987. The consequences of a market crash now - well, I don't want to even think about that. Will the market crash without this bailout? I don't think anyone really knows. Scary.

Meanwhile, your elected members of the U.S. House and Senate seem bound and determined to go on their recess after Friday (tomorrow) whether there is an agreement or not. Without an agreement, though, I wonder if it would be safe for them to go home.

Lord, I pray your wisdom and discernment upon our elected officials whom we have entrusted to resolve this crisis. May there be someone who can put partisan politics aside, step up, and take a true leadership role in helping resolve this matter. Amen.

Electoral Votes: September 24, 2008

National Percentage
McCain 62%, Obama 38%

Percentage remains the same as on Sunday, but McCain has lost Colorado and New Hampshire (but they're pretty close). Also, Pennsylvania and New Jersey are still pretty close.

source: AOL Straw Poll
see also: Methodology

Don't Ever Question My Patriotism

I love this country of ours. I love its history, its traditions, and its values. I love that we can speak freely and disagree and we don't tend to kill each other over it (for the most part) like they do in other countries.

I abide by the laws, I pay my taxes, and I pay my bills. And I bitch and moan when the bills seem too high and the laws so restrictive you can't breathe. But I am a patriot.

Those who are able to pay their bills but choose not to are unpatriotic. Lenders who give mortgages and loans to people who don't actually qualify are unpatriotic. Speculators who artificially jack up the prices of their commodities - be it real estate, oil, or whatever - to satisfy their greed are unpatriotic. Those who are perfectly able to hold a job but choose to leech off of our welfare system instead are unpatriotic. Those who exploit children and the elderly are unpatriotic. Those of you whom I trusted when I voted you into office and chose instead to betray my trust are unpatriotic.

I am a hard-working American who has earned what he has. And if it's alright with you, I'd like to keep my nest egg. It just angers the hell out of me that I have to pay for the mistakes made by a lot of unpatriotic people.

And what ever you do, don't you EVER question my patriotism. You're liable to find a flag planted where the sun don't shine.

Say It Ain't So, Joe: More Bidenisms

This was one of my favorite headlines during the past week: Obama Chides Biden for Off-Message Interview. Evidently Joe took exception to one of the campaign ads against John McCain. You know a campaign is negative when one of your own objects to it. I'd have liked to have seen that. Young Barack chiding old Joe. What a picture!

Before that, there was that other remark when asked whether the wealthy would be paying more tax. Biden answered, "It's time to be patriotic . . . time to jump in, time to be part of the deal, time to help get America out of the rut." I'm sure the Hollywood elite, who love Obama so much, will love this tax plan.

It's no wonder there are rumors about Biden dropping off the Democratic ticket and getting replaced. Of course, these are just rumors - if you actually believe Obama. Then again, Obama is screwed if he bumps him from the ticket - makes him look indecisive. Besides, I like having Joe on the ticket - he's funny and he makes McCain look better. Makes Dan Quayle look competent.

Doesn't he kind of look like McLean Stevenson as Col. Henry Blake on M*A*S*H? Sorry McLean. Rest in peace, buddy.

Pray for America

The purpose of this blog is to transmit what's on my mind and in my heart.

Lately with all the politics and the turmoil surrounding our crumbling economy, I haven't had a whole lot going on in my heart. I hadn't realized that until last night as I settled into bed after shooting out another political blog.

Frankly I'm concerned and even a little scared about what's happening. I am also very angry at those responsible for causing this mess.

So as I settled into bed last night, feeling sorry for myself, that small, still voice deep inside me spoke up and asked, "Have you prayed about this?" Have you prayed for your country?" Sadly, my answer was "no." That was my wake-up call.

We are facing what could be the most dire moment in our country's history during our lifetimes. More dire than Hurricanes Andrew, Ike, and Katrina. More dire than the floods that devastated the Midwest. More dire than the fires in California. Even more dire than September 11, 2001.

This is a disaster of our own doing, one that could have been prevented. There were those who warned us of this impending disaster. But the warnings went unheeded - even laughed off. We have been betrayed by the people whom we entrusted to lead us. Now that we are facing disaster, those we entrusted before cannot even agree on how to get us out of this.

It is this burden of adversity and uncertainty that I laid - and continue to lay - before God. "In God we Trust" is the motto proudly displayed on our currency. As a nation, the time certainly has come when we need to trust in God.

We need him now, more than ever. So please join with me - trust in God. And pray for America.

Top Recipients of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Campaign Contributions, 1989-2008

My source here - I feel - is pretty reliable. They got their information directly from the Federal Election Commission.

It would seem that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have some important stakeholders in their future. Feel free to look at the numbers and draw your own conclusions.

They come from both sides of the aisle, but notice the primary color. Wonder what they promised in return?

Name	Office	Party/State	Total
1. Dodd, Christopher J	Senate	D-CT	$133,900
2. Kerry, John	Senate	D-MA	$111,000
3. Obama, Barack	Senate	D-IL	$105,849
4. Clinton, Hillary	Senate	D-NY	$75,550
5. Kanjorski, Paul E	House	D-PA	$65,500
6. Bennett, Robert F	Senate	R-UT	$61,499
7. Johnson, Tim	Senate	D-SD	$61,000
8. Conrad, Kent	Senate	D-ND	$58,991
9. Davis, Tom	House	R-VA	$55,499
10. Bond, Christopher S 'Kit'	Senate	R-MO	$55,400
11. Bachus, Spencer	House	R-AL	$55,300
12. Shelby, Richard C	Senate	R-AL	$55,000
13. Emanuel, Rahm	House	D-IL	$51,750
14. Reed, Jack	Senate	D-RI	$50,750
15. Carper, Tom	Senate	D-DE	$44,389
16. Frank, Barney	House	D-MA	$40,100
17. Maloney, Carolyn B	House	D-NY	$38,750
18. Bean, Melissa	House	D-IL	$37,249
19. Blunt, Roy	House	R-MO	$36,500
20. Pryce, Deborah	House	R-OH	$34,750
21. Miller, Gary	House	R-CA	$33,000
22. Pelosi, Nancy	House	D-CA	$32,750
23. Reynolds, Tom	House	R-NY	$32,700
24. Hoyer, Steny H	House	D-MD	$30,500
25. Hooley, Darlene	House	D-OR	$28,750

Senate Bill S.190

Barack Obama has been so busy trying to place blame for our current financial crisis and accusing Senator McCain of being out of touch. Well, refer to my previous post regarding the then-upcoming real estate/mortgage bust.

Apparently others were well aware of what could happen to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and actually tried to do something about it (as opposed to just indicating "present"). One of those was John McCain, a co-sponsor of the Senate Bill S.190, entitled the Federal Housing Enterprise Regulatory Reform Act of 2005. Please read the following statement McCain made on May 26, 2005:

"Mr. President, this week Fannie Mae's regulator reported that the company's quarterly reports of profit growth over the past few years were "illusions deliberately and systematically created" by the company's senior management, which resulted in a $10.6 billion accounting scandal.

"The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight's report goes on to say that Fannie Mae employees deliberately and intentionally manipulated financial reports to hit earnings targets in order to trigger bonuses for senior executives. In the case of Franklin Raines, Fannie Mae's former chief executive officer, OFHEO's report shows that over half of Mr. Raines' compensation for the 6 years through 2003 was directly tied to meeting earnings targets. The report of financial misconduct at Fannie Mae echoes the deeply troubling $5 billion profit restatement at Freddie Mac.

"The OFHEO report also states that Fannie Mae used its political power to lobby Congress in an effort to interfere with the regulator's examination of the company's accounting problems. This report comes some weeks after Freddie Mac paid a record $3.8 million fine in a settlement with the Federal Election Commission and restated lobbying disclosure reports from 2004 to 2005. These are entities that have demonstrated over and over again that they are deeply in need of reform.

"For years I have been concerned about the regulatory structure that governs Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac--known as Government-sponsored entities or GSEs--and the sheer magnitude of these companies and the role they play in the housing market. OFHEO's report this week does nothing to ease these concerns. In fact, the report does quite the contrary. OFHEO's report solidifies my view that the GSEs need to be reformed without delay.

"I join as a cosponsor of the Federal Housing Enterprise Regulatory Reform Act of 2005, S. 190, to underscore my support for quick passage of GSE regulatory reform legislation. If Congress does not act, American taxpayers will continue to be exposed to the enormous risk that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac pose to the housing market, the overall financial system, and the economy as a whole

"I urge my colleagues to support swift action on this GSE reform legislation."

Here's a link from Bloomberg on this also.

What McCain predicted, even before the bubble burst, is now coming true. Evidently, his plea for Congress to act fell on deaf ears as usual.

It was the Clinton administration that first allowed mortgage companies to make bad loans to people who actually didn't qualify.

Some of you may say, "Well, McCain just co-sponsored the bill." So how many bills have you co-sponsored?

McCain was not the problem. He offered a solution but got shot down. But unlike Vietnam, we are all prisoners.

Electoral Votes: September 20, 2008

National Percentage:
McCain 62%, Obama 38%

Even as I was writing my last post, the numbers changed. Colorado and New Hampshire - two states that were very close anyway - changed from Obama to McCain. Alaska, a perennial red state is still an anomaly which I had to place as a blue state. But they are getting close anyway with a 61% advantage toward McCain.

As AOL resets the straw poll every Thursday, perhaps Saturday is not a good day to post results as the data has only had two days to refresh.

States to Watch:
Alaska, Colorado, Indiana, Missouri, Nebraska, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Wisconsin.

source: AOL Straw Poll
see also: Methodology

Counting the Vote: My Methodology

Recently, I've gotten interested in the AOL Straw Poll. Not that it is terribly scientific, but because I believe I have found that with some simple adjustments, it may actually reflect what's going on out there. So I'm conducting this little experiment to see how close it is. Of course the true test will be after the actual votes are counted on November 4.

My Methodology
If I were to follow the raw data on America Online, it would be totally unrealistic. Today, for example, the whole map would be red except for Maine and DC. Surely there are plenty of liberal Democrats out there who would muster considerably more than the seven electoral votes than what today's numbers represent (it's no wonder why they whine and complain on the comments section on how unfair and inaccurate AOL's poll is).

So I tweak the numbers. First I note what the national percentages are and who the leader is. Then I check the results from each state. If the percentage is greater than or equal to that of the national leader, I award that state to the leader. For example, in last week's poll, John McCain was the leader at 60%. Any state where 60% or more of its votes went to McCain was awarded to McCain on the electoral vote map.

REVISION EFFECTIVE OCTOBER 3rd
America Online has revised the Straw Poll to include presidential candidates from other parties or who are running as independents. They are also counting undecided votes. This is good news as I feel it is an even more accurate gauge of what's going on. As a result, my methodology is also slightly changed.

If, when checking the results from each state, the leader does not have a percentage equal or greater to the national average, then I compare the national average of the runner-up. If the runner-up has a percentage of that state's votes that is equal or greater than that of the national average, then that state's electoral votes are awarded to the runner-up (otherwise they are awarded to the leader).

Here are some examples: In this week's poll so far, McCain leads with a percentage of 54% of the straw poll vote nationally. Obama has a percentage of 42%. Example 1: In New Hampshire, McCain has 53% of the votes in the straw poll. Prior to the revision, New Hampshire would have gone to Obama automatically. But now we compare Obama's numbers; he has 43% of the vote. New Hampshire still goes to Obama. Example 2: In Utah, McCain has 50% of the vote, which is not even close prior to the revision. However, when we compare Obama's numbers, he only has 41% of the vote (he would need 42%); therefore Utah goes to McCain anyway.

Anomolies
As with any polling method, there is a margin of error. Surprisingly (or not) these results have been fairly close to what everybody else's polls have been saying with only a few exceptions. With the revision to AOL's Straw Poll and to my methodology, I expect fewer anomalies.

One of those exceptions, strangely enough, was Alaska. Maybe those in Alaska who have internet tend to be Obama supporters. Or perhaps, it's been a long time since the other polls have taken place in Alaska, and really are turning blue.

I've even seen a few traditionally red states turn blue. But who knows? Perhaps that has really been happening.

One factor I have not considered in my methodology is the number of votes in each state. For example, Colorado and Alabama each have nine electoral votes. As of a few seconds ago, Colorado shows 4,300 have cast their vote on AOL. But in Alabama, over 13,000 have voted. Doesn't quite sound fair, does it?

But I have seen some of the battleground states switch back and forth between candidates, just like all the other polls. So maybe I'm not too far off.

Sharing My Results
Over the next several weeks until the election is over and the real votes are counted, I will be posting my my results in this blog. I will state the source of my data, how I came up with the results, and also post a link to a site (maintained by the L.A. Times) showing a map of how the states voted.

Enjoy. And PLEASE, PLEASE, PLEASE take the opportunity these next 44 days to study the candidates and what they stand for and make an informed decision before casting your ballot.

Stay brave, stay free.

Joe Biden: An Unwise Choice?

Vice President nominee Joseph Biden has led a distinguished career as a U.S. Senator from Delaware, including legislation which helped create a "drug czar" and significant measures to combat domestic violence.

Biden has unsuccessfully run for President twice, including this year. However, he has come one step closer by being tapped by Barak Obama as his running mate.

But I wonder if he really wants the job.

Many wonder why Obama chose Joe as the Vice Presidential candidate. Earlier in the campaign, Joe said that Obama was clearly not experienced and that the Oval Office was not a good place for on-the-job training.

He was later quoted as saying that Hillary Clinton would have been a better choice for Vice President.

Joe Biden appears to have the enthusiasm of a block of wood when it comes to the possibility of being Vice President. The polls show it.

Obama may have scored a slam-dunk if he had chosen Hillary Clinton as his running mate. That would have united the Democratic Party. Instead, it is quite possible that Obama made a fatal error and his campaign is - at least for the time being - sputtering.

By the way, in light of the crisis in our financial markets, Joe Biden was a sponsor of the new bankruptcy law - which helps the banks (many of which are based in his home state of Delaware) but not the consumers. Banks don't vote. Consumers do.

So Where Was Congress?

I don't have a PhD in economics, but even I could foresee the bubble bursting in what was once known as our last real estate boom.

Apparently there were a considerable number of lenders (even reputable ones like Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac) who were giving away mortgages to people who didn't even qualify to begin with. HELLO!!! HOW STUPID IS THAT?!?!?!

Meanwhile, as the real estate market was showing signs of unraveling - even to those of us who do not have PhD's in economics - where was our Congress?

Lest We Forget: The Democrat-Controlled Congress

Here's something I found on AOL I thought I'd share:

It was only 2 years ago. Remember the election in 2006?
Thought you might like to read the following:
A little over one year ago:

1) Consumer confidence stood at a 2 1/2 year high;
2) Regular gasoline sold for $2.19 a gallon;
3) The unemployment rate was 4.5%.

Since voting in a Democratic Congress in 2006 we have seen:

1) Consumer confidence plummet;
2) The cost of regular gasoline soar to over $3.50 a gallon;
3) Unemployment is up to 5% (a 10% increase);
4) American households have seen $2.3 trillion in equity value
evaporate (stock and mutual fund losses);
5) Americans have seen their home equity drop by $1.2 trillion
dollars;
6) 1% of American homes are in foreclosure.

America voted for change in 2006, and we got it!
Remember its Congress that makes law not the President. He has to
work with what's handed to him.

Remember this on November 4.

Politics - Yikes!

It is interesting to see that despite the deeply personal nature of politics, people are willing to openly share their opinions. When that happens, those who are listening tend to want to jump in with their own opinions. And when all parties don't agree, it tends to get a little heated.

With the presidential election coming in about 60 days, it is becoming increasingly difficult for me to avoid getting sucked into these conversations. I have pretty strong convictions as how to run the country, and I'm usually quite willing to share my views. That's why I like to blog. I can state my point of view in peace; you can read it and you can agree or disagree with it and I'm safe right here in my chair in front of the computer. Chicken.

Yesterday morning was a prime example of why I don't like to discuss politics with family and friends. As I do every Saturday morning, I was meeting with two other Christian men for breakfast where we discuss how our week went and pray for each other for the next week. Something related to the upcoming election came up and there was a disagreement. Fortunately we didn't go too far with it, but it was clear that we may be on different sides of the fence. Although a little awkward, we did change the subject and were able to move on.

Why we are on different sides of the fence is not important - as long as we are making an informed decision. And while my friend and I disagree on the point (which - funny thing - I don't remember what it was), I respect his viewpoint because I know - based on his knowledge and his experience - he has made an informed decision. Besides, who's to say who's right and who's wrong?

With the passing of my wife's uncle on Thursday, we will have a lot of family getting together. This is a family where the the political spectrum literally runs from the far left to the far right, and political discussions are common. This will be a difficult time. I think the safest thing for me to do is just smile and walk away.

Personally my mind is made up. Based on my own knowledge and research, and my own values, I have made my decision.

Saint Called to Heaven

My wife's Uncle Roger passed away a couple of hours ago. His health had been deteriorating gradually for the last couple of years, and the deterioration had accelerated this past summer. He had already been in hospice once already, but recovered enough so that he could move into a group home. But last week he suffered a stroke and ended up back in hospice.

While it is never an easy thing for the family, at least there is some satisfaction that he did have a full life, and is no longer suffering.

His room at the hospice had a large window by his bed. There was a bird feeder outside and you could watch the birds. His wife and daughter were there when he passed. They say that as he breathed his last breath, a bird hit the window, then flew off.

Roger is at peace now. No doubt he's playing cards with his twin brother.