Election 2008 - The People Have Spoken

Missouri is still too close to call, but it won't change anything anyway - Barack Obama has won the presidency. Not by an overwhelming margin, but decisively nonetheless.

Starting January 20, we can move forward as a nation under new leadership. What that will look like is anybody's guess. Following this post will be a series of posts where I will share my thoughts on what the Obama administration could mean to us. And while I am disappointed that John McCain will not be our next president, I am thankful that the choice we made as a nation was at least a decisive one, and that we are now free to turn our focus again on the challenges that face us. I will - for the time being - remain cautiously optimistic.

Election Night 2008

_____________________________________________________________________
10:08 pm MST - it's been a long night, but not as long as some imagined. I'm going to bed.
10:07 pm MST - Obama just quoted Lincoln.
9:59 pm MST - Barack Obama is making is acceptance speech in Chicago.
9:28 pm MST - here in Phoenix, John McCain has just a delivered a gracious concession speech.
9:02 pm MST - With the polls closing in California, all the networks have projected that state for Obama, and therefore the presidency. Votes are still being tabulated, but it's over.
8:45 pm MST - Fox just called Virginia for Obama. Looks like Florida will fall, too. With California left, it's over for Mac.
7:36 pm MST - not looking good for Mac.
6:54 pm MST - still no big surprises. Pennsylvania has been projected for Obama. Interesting to see the differences between various news services. CNN seems most reluctant to project. I don't project here until ABC, NBC, CBS, CNN, and FOX are all in consensus (hence the time delay).
6:13 pm MST - no big surprises so far.
5:12 pm MST - Kentucky, Vermont called.
5:06 pm MST - Let the fun begin!

Election 2008: Early Calls

The above map represents, with high certainty, how various states have been called according to my methodology using the AOL Straw Poll.

The higher degree certainty was determined by taking the popular votes in the AOL Straw Poll, dividing it by 538 (total number of electoral votes) and distributing that number to each state accordingly to determine how many popular votes each state should have.

EXAMPLE: AOL Straw Poll shows 53,800 total votes cast. Divide that by 538 electoral votes = 100 popular votes per electoral vote. New Mexico has 5 electoral votes. Multiply that by 100, and New Mexico would have 500 popular votes.

If the AOL Straw Poll shows that a state has at least as many votes counted as were calculated for its distribution (in the above example, New Mexico would have to have at least 500 votes) then there is a higher degree of certainty that the percentages are accurate. Otherwise, if a state is undercounted, there could be a tendency for a state to flip-flop when the actual results come in, especially where the polling numbers are quite close (a good example of that is Minnesota, which I showed red last night, but is now blue. And Minnesota is undercounted - until tonight).

Interestingly, many of the states shown above are the so-called battleground states.

As I've stated before, I don't how accurate my methodology is. I'm curious to find out tonight.

Electoral Count: Election Eve

National Percentage
McCain 57%, Obama 42%, all other responses 1%

Well, here it is, as optimistic as it may seem to most (although if I had used the raw score from AOL, McCain would win with 493 electoral votes - not that I would complain).

There are other factors that could still play into this: The Bradley Effect, the Shy Tory Factor, and the Spiral of Silence.

In my opinion, perhaps the Bradley Effect seems least likely if we are to believe we are less of a racist nation than we were 20 years ago when the term was first attributed to Tom Bradley's unsuccessful run for California governor. In fact, some suggest that Obama secured his nomination due to a "reverse" Bradley Effect. However the Bradley Effect has never been tested on a national level. Personally I don't consider myself a racist nor do I know of too many who are. But I know there's a few out there. We have seen racially-motivated incidents during this campaign (which have been mostly targeted against blacks), and charges of entire areas that are described as racist in general. Unfortunately, if Obama loses this election, many will blame it on racism.

The Shy Tory Factor refers to conservatives in the UK - and it seems to apply here as well - whose share of the vote turns out to be significantly higher than what was originally reported in the polls prior to the election and during the exit polls. Simply put, conservatives tend not to share their voting intentions in public. Polling methodology in the UK has been altered since the 1992 election. If the polls here in US turn out to be substantially off from the actual results, perhaps the methodology will change here, too.

The Spiral of Silence is most intriguing to me, especially since I feel we are experiencing this during this election more than at any other time before. This theory states that one is less likely to voice their opinion if they feel they are in the minority and they feel "fear of reprisal or isolation from the the majority." Mass media determines what they believe to be the dominant opinion and begin asserting that opinion on the electorate to high degree. Interestingly enough, the Spiral of Silence pertains only to moral issues.

Hence our current presidential election. Many believe that this is not just a contest between two candidates, but a choice between moral and ideological issues. It is highly-charged emotionally. There are people who have been shot just for wearing a McCain t-shirt (or claiming to have been beaten by a black man for wearing a McCain t-shirt). There is a decided bias against all Republican candidates (regardless of office). All of this frenzy has been fueled by the mass media. These are all classic examples of a Spiral of Silence. The theory also states that a vocal minority can overcome the the spiral. This year we have Joe the Plumber and PUMAs - even Sarah Palin to some degree - that are speaking up and making us all think.

Me thinks this is definitely an election to remember. I will try and keep you all posted tomorrow during the day and night. For now it is getting late - and Election Day is just minutes away here in the AZ. Good night, and God bless.

source: AOL Straw Poll
see also: Methodology (revised October 3, 2008)

Little Sarah Palin - Cute!

This is short and sweet - only eight seconds - and incredibly cute!

Electoral Count: November 2, 2008

National Percentage
McCain 57%, Obama 42%, all other responses 1%

We have one more day of campaigning left. The popular vote numbers are tightening up on the AOL Straw Poll, but interestingly McCain is not only picking up the so-called battleground states we've heard so much about, but also Maine, Oregon, and Minnesota! Is the word getting out?

Now if that's some sort of fluke and we give those states back to Obama, McCain still wins.

It's also interesting to note that Obama went back to Iowa this weekend - a state that everyone thought he thought he had in the bag. If that's truly the case, why go back? It makes his advertising blitz here in Arizona over the weekend look like a diversionary tactic.

As it is getting late, I will comment more tomorrow night and make one more electoral count prediction before going into Tuesday.

source: AOL Straw Poll
see also: Methodology (revised October 3, 2008)

Are You Better Off Now With Obama's Tax Cut Than You Were Just A Couple Weeks Ago?

Remember how Barack Obama promised a tax cut for anyone making under $250,000? Now that number is being reported to be as low as $120,000.

So let me ask you: Are you better off now with Obama's tax cut than you were just a couple of weeks ago?

Dear Mr. Obama

Angry Taxpayer: Why I Won't Vote for Obama

I read a comment from an Obama apologist on the Fox News website stating that he didn't mind paying taxes. I guess he was feeling patriotic.

I do have to agree with him on that point, however. As he stated, he wants good schools for his children. I, too, want my grandchildren to have a good quality education. Also, I want police and fire departments to keep me safe and good roads and highways to drive on. I want my garbage picked up and I want nice parks to relax in. There are plenty of good things that our taxes pay for.

On the other hand, I want my governments (national, state, and local) to be responsible enough to spend money within their means. I resent having to pay taxes to cover bad mortgages underwritten by financial institutions to people who neither qualified nor had the means to pay back the money they owed. I resent having to pay welfare to leeches who are capable of working but won't get a job; instead they stay home, get loaded, get high, and/or make more babies that we ultimately have to care of. I resent paying taxes when the oil companies gouge us at the gas pumps and get tax breaks. I resent paying for auto manufacturers who refuse to retool their factories and actually produce fuel-efficient vehicles (or vehicles that run on alternative fuels - gee, what a concept!). I resent paying taxes while companies who outsource overseas get tax breaks - and we are stuck buying imported products off our store shelves that are inferior - and even deadly. I resent getting service through those same companies that is also inferior because the person on the other end of the line hasn't mastered the English language enough to actually hold a decent conversation. I resent my tax money going to research grants to pharmaceutical companies that gouge us at the drug store, claiming the money goes to more research (which they can't even get right as evidenced by the body count from those taking their poison). I resent paying the salaries of all those slobs in Congress who don't pass any meaningful legislation that will get our nation past the troubles we face and who look the other way when institutions like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are committing outright fraud. And I resent paying for programs that I find morally reprehensible (where's MY line-item veto!).

And here comes sweet-talking Barack Obama. He's got some nice dreams. But you can't promise the moon if it's not yours to give.

He is inexperienced and untested. He has not written a single piece of legislation, despite serving as a US Senator (during a term has hasn't even completed). Obama even admitted, back in 2004: "I should not run for President in 2008." So what changed? Even his own running mate had called him out on his inexperience.

His foreign policy is a disaster. Is he just making nice with our enemies? Or is he pandering to them?

He is way too liberal. Granted, after eight years of the ultra-right George W. Bush, our country is ready to swing its collective pendulum back to the left. A little. But Barack Obama? I don't think the country is ready for that. John McCain will bring us more to a comfortable middle.

Let's be honest. We just don't know the man. He has ties with a lot of people who are less than model citizens. Unfortunately, when you try to bring that up, the Obama camp just gets evasive and defensive. It's hard to know what kind of man he is. Some say he's Muslim. He says he's Christian. But when you look at the church he's attended for the last 20 years - with its pastor preaching hateful rhetoric that is clearly racist - even the casual observer - let alone a fellow Christian - has to question Obama's faith. Then there's his two memoirs - one geared to a black audience, and the other to a white audience. But the same story? Really?

I know McCain, warts and all. Having him serve as a Congressman and a Senator representing my home state doesn't hurt, either. I know where he stands, and he shares most of my values.

Obama shares my values only when it suits him politically. I don't really know the man. I suspect that very few do. Besides, he hasn't paid his dues yet. Maybe someday, if he ever comes around to proving himself. But not now. Especially not now.

Presidential Polls vs. Real Results

There is a lot of attention to the presidential polls in the news media every day - yes, even every hour. And many of the polls show that Obama is winning. Or is he?

I found a very interesting article on the blog American Thinker that goes into detail why polling is so flawed and - ultimately - inaccurate.

Since our liberal news media is decidedly slanted to the Democrats, the polls they conduct are also slanted likewise. And interestingly enough, even when there are polls indicating the Republicans are leading, those are largely ignored by the press.

A few have gone out on a limb and said that Obama will win in a landslide. McCain appears to be surging (even the polls conducted by the press are showing that). I think it will be McCain in a squeaker reminiscent of the last two presidential elections. And perhaps there will be a surprise or two - which will make for a good spanking for Obama. We will see in five days.

Electoral Count: October 30, 2008

National Percentage
McCain 61%, Obama 38%, all other responses 1%

My apologies for not posting this last week. Blogger was down last Thursday afternoon and AOL had refreshed their straw poll the next day. Just a matter of timing.

This week's anomaly goes to North Dakota where a whopping 11% of those votes are going to Bob Barr (Libertarian, GA) against McCain's 46% and Obama's 42%. I have awarded that state to Obama, but it's probably more likely to go to McCain. Also, there are only 142 votes from North Dakota out of a total of over 182,000 nationally - so the numbers are statistically very skewed.

One thing I did notice this week is that McCain has gained in every state except for North Dakota (due to the Barr factor), nor has he gained in the District of Columbia. This could be an indication of a "ninth-inning" surge. Should be interesting.

Only five days to go.

source: AOL Straw Poll
see also: Methodology (revised October 3, 2008)

This Election Too Important To Ignore

This comes from our brothers and sisters at CatholicVote.com. You don't have to be Catholic to appreciate this:

Electoral Count: October 16, 2008

National Percentage
McCain 54%, Obama 44%, all other responses 2%

It's a tie at this point.

source: AOL Straw Poll
see also: Methodology (revised October 3, 2008)

Electoral Count: October 9, 2008

National Percentage
McCain 54%, Obama 42%, all other responses 4%

source: AOL Straw Poll
see also: Methodology (revised October 3, 2008)

What This Economic Crisis Really Means

He also forced everyone, small and great, rich and poor, free and slave, to receive a mark on his right hand or on his forehead, so that no one could buy or sell unless he had the mark, which is the name of the beast or the number of his name.

Revelation 13:16-17

The Book of Revelation contains much prophecy of what the world will be like after Jesus calls his chosen people up to heaven with him. It will be a dark time indeed as the world then will be ruled by the Antichrist under one world government - and financially controlled under one world currency.

Many, including myself, fear that the $700,000,000,000.00 bailout passed by Congress last week is just the tip of the iceberg. Most, if not all, of the world markets are in a similar bind. Many acknowledge we will be in a recession, perhaps a deep one. Perhaps even a depression.

With many of the world's banks in distress, money is already being transferred between nations. More debts will default, more financial firms will fail. There will be great distress.

A worldwide currency is not a new idea; in fact top bankers and economists have been trying to find a way to implement it. Now with the uncertainty of just about everything financial, it is my opinion that this worldwide financial crisis will pave the way to a worldwide currency. As bad as things are, a single currency may appear to be a rather attractive prospect for many.

The scary thing is that the financial sector transcends the very sovereignty of our country. The president doesn't control it. Congress doesn't control it. The courts don't control it. The financial sector is like its own shadow government. The most powerful people in the world right now are those who control the markets and the commodities that flow between them.

How did we get here? Simple. "For the love of money is a root of all kinds of evil. Some people, eager for money, have wandered from the faith and pierced themselves with many griefs." (1 Timothy 6:10)

Keep watch, my brethren. Stay vigilant.

The Futility Of It All

I confess that lately I've seemed self-consumed in my thoughts and concerns. It is if my very soul is being sapped. And I don't like it.

Jesus told us that we would be able to recognize the signs of the end times as easily as one could recognize the changes in the seasons. And let me tell you, folks - the seasons are a-changin'.

We watch and wonder as Barack Obama and John McCain try to convince us that they should be the next leader of the free world. The more they talk, the more they seem alike. Most Americans have already made up their mind, and no campaigning or debating will sway their opinion. Amongst those who already know how they will vote, the election is very close. The sales job, then, is directed at the minority who has yet to make up their mind. It is this minority that will tip the election toward one or the other; and amongst these voters, the election is also very close. As I watch these two candidates trade rhetoric with each other and outline their plans, I sometimes can't help asking myself, "Does it really matter?"

As I wrote during the primaries, I have found myself having to compromise my own values in choosing our next president. It is only 26 days until the election. Do I choose the one whose values are closer to my own? Or do I cast a vote in rebellion by voting someone other than the top two? Or do I further extend my rebellion and cast my vote for none of the above?

Considering all that has transpired - especially in the past 30 days or so - we as a nation may already be screwed, regardless of who takes the oath of office on January 20, 2009. Both candidates claim they will bring change. Unfortunately, I don't think real change will occur until January 20, 2013 - if this nation survives that long.

Controversy: Achmed the Dead Terrorist

Tune in to Comedy Central and you may find comedian/ventriloquist Jeff Dunham and his suitcase full of puppets.

One of those puppets is Achmed the Dead Terrorist, and a skit featuring him has received 66 million hits on You Tube [see it here].

But according to this report on FOXNews, not everyone is happy with the skit. In South Africa, a commercial which features a clip from the skit has been deemed by the Advertisement Standards Authority as offensive to Muslims, which makes up 2% of the population.

There is no direct reference in the skit to connecting Achmed to Islam. In fact, Dunham asks Achmed point-blank if he is Muslim, to which he replies "I don't think so," and goes on to say he is "made in China."

But while there is no direct reference to Islam, there are several inferences such as "infidel", Achmed's dress, Achmed's name, "Allah", "72 virgins", and "paradise." Then of course there is Achmed's own job description as a suicide bomber. And when we hear "suicide bomber", we all automatically think of Islam.

In spite of all the inferred references, this routine does not poke fun at Islam. It pokes fun at at someone who failed horribly, and it pokes fun at an action that is otherwise so horrible and futile.

Through his puppets, Jeff Dunham makes fun of everybody. "I've skewered whites, blacks, Hispanics, Christians, Jews, Muslims, gays, straights, rednecks, addicts, the elderly, and my wife," Dunham explains. "As a standup comic, it is my job to make the majority of people laugh, and I believe that comedy is the last true form of free speech." He even makes fun of those who drive a Toyota Prius (which he himself drives)! I've seen the act - I think he's funny (even though I sometimes drive a Prius!).

Even though Achmed is not identified as a Muslim, it is easy to make the connection - even those of the Muslim faith see it. But God forbid we should ever insult a Muslim, especially when they have no problem insulting - and vigorously persecuting - those who are not Muslim.

"Turn the other cheek," Jesus said. Even Muslims regard Jesus as a prophet.

Electoral Votes: October 2, 2008

National Percentage
McCain 60%, Obama 40%

Man, this is really close!

source: AOL Straw Poll
see also: Methodology

How Congress Voted on the Bailout

Electoral Votes: September 28, 2008

National Percentage
McCain 61%, Obama 39%

Last time I said to watch out for New Jersey - well, they've turned red; this is huge for McCain if this is really true. Alaska is still blue, and Vermont is now red - both of these are anomalous, but they both carry the same number of electoral votes. Colorado is back to red.

source: AOL Straw Poll
see also: Methodology

Ask Not What This Bill Is Going To Do For You...

Ask not what this bill is going to do for you, but what this bill is going to do to your country.

A week ago Treasury Security Henry Paulson met with members of Congress and outlined a story of gloom and doom. He said we have to pass a bill in which American taxpayers will have to pay out $700,000,000,000 to save financial institutions that are failing. He seems to have most of the Democrats in Congress convinced of this. He's even gotten President Bush believing this. And of course the Wall Street economists - the ones whose firms stand to gain from it - endorse Paulson's plan.

Yet there is considerable disagreement with the plan. On Thursday, Senator Richard Shelby (R-AL) presented a petition signed by 200 of our leading economists (who, by the way, are not on the payrolls of those institutions that would benefit from the bailout) objecting to the Paulson plan "on the grounds that it could create perverse incentives, that it is too vague and that its long-run effects are unclear." [source]

As the flow of credit is beginning to freeze, everyone agrees that action needs to be taken. But the Paulson plan is met with much skepticism, especially when one considers how rapidly something like his has been crafted and rammed down our throats with the threat of dire consequences. One economist I heard on the radio was asked point-blank that if this bill wasn't passed, would we see the market crash this week or the next. His answer was "no," and he sounded absolutely confident. Polls indicate also that a majority of Americans are against the Paulson plan as well.

It sounds like this bailout would benefit Paulson and a few other politicians, as well as Wall Street. My hat goes off to those who actually spoke up and to those in Congress who actually listened and refused to go any further without more research.

With all the questions and concerns against this plan, where is Secretary Paulson to defend it? Where are you, Mr. Secretary?

One of my nieces - bless her heart - called the other night to see if we would co-sign on a car loan for her. She's already faced repossession on this same car before. We said no, especially in light of the possibility of co-signing a $700,000,000,000 bailout to Wall Street. After all, she's 32 years old. At that age, one should be financially responsible - not looking for co-signers. She's in a bad spot right now because of poor decisions on her part. Perhaps not having a car for a while will slap some sense in her head and finally she will get her priorities straight.

I wonder if we can do that with Wall Street? Unfortunately, whatever bill gets passed will probably have a little something for the members of Congress who have betrayed us.

I'm Paul, And I Approve This Message

To Debate or Not to Debate?

There's been a lot of criticism leveled at John McCain for requesting postponement of tomorrow night's first presidential debate. He made this request so that he could go to Washington to help with the financial bailout bill which must be agreed upon by the Congress before they go on recess after Friday.

I think McCain's intentions are genuine, and they show that he is taking leadership. Was this a bold political move? You bet. And a brilliant one at that (I could be wrong - but I doubt it).

Apparently, many agree with me. This morning on the news radio station I listen to, there was a guest from Zogby International, one of the premier polling firms. He said that about midway through their polling yesterday, McCain made his announcement. Understandably, this turn of events had an effect on their responses. Fortunately, Zogby had a statistically sufficient number of response both before and after McCain's announcement. Before the announcement, McCain's numbers were trailing as they had been all week. But after the announcement, his numbers were making double-digit gains, and once again, McCain held a slim lead over Obama [latest Zogby poll].

Personally, I think postponing the debate is the right thing to do. Deeds, not words, are what we need right now.

Financial Bailout: Still No Deal

Today's summit to hammer out details over a $700,000,000,000 package to rescue America's failing financial institutions only showed that opposing sides agreed to disagree. [story] Meanwhile, an entire nation continues to hold its collective breath.

There's a lot of posturing and finger-pointing as to how we got this far. But it's time to get past that and figure out a way to get out of this. I don't usually agree with CNN's Glenn Beck, but he make a good point here [full article]: "Unfortunately, [Treasury Secretary Paulson's] right. In fact, it would have to take an absolute disaster to make me even consider supporting something like this. Welcome to that absolute disaster."

We are in a much worse situation now than we were when the market crashed in 1987. The consequences of a market crash now - well, I don't want to even think about that. Will the market crash without this bailout? I don't think anyone really knows. Scary.

Meanwhile, your elected members of the U.S. House and Senate seem bound and determined to go on their recess after Friday (tomorrow) whether there is an agreement or not. Without an agreement, though, I wonder if it would be safe for them to go home.

Lord, I pray your wisdom and discernment upon our elected officials whom we have entrusted to resolve this crisis. May there be someone who can put partisan politics aside, step up, and take a true leadership role in helping resolve this matter. Amen.

Electoral Votes: September 24, 2008

National Percentage
McCain 62%, Obama 38%

Percentage remains the same as on Sunday, but McCain has lost Colorado and New Hampshire (but they're pretty close). Also, Pennsylvania and New Jersey are still pretty close.

source: AOL Straw Poll
see also: Methodology

Don't Ever Question My Patriotism

I love this country of ours. I love its history, its traditions, and its values. I love that we can speak freely and disagree and we don't tend to kill each other over it (for the most part) like they do in other countries.

I abide by the laws, I pay my taxes, and I pay my bills. And I bitch and moan when the bills seem too high and the laws so restrictive you can't breathe. But I am a patriot.

Those who are able to pay their bills but choose not to are unpatriotic. Lenders who give mortgages and loans to people who don't actually qualify are unpatriotic. Speculators who artificially jack up the prices of their commodities - be it real estate, oil, or whatever - to satisfy their greed are unpatriotic. Those who are perfectly able to hold a job but choose to leech off of our welfare system instead are unpatriotic. Those who exploit children and the elderly are unpatriotic. Those of you whom I trusted when I voted you into office and chose instead to betray my trust are unpatriotic.

I am a hard-working American who has earned what he has. And if it's alright with you, I'd like to keep my nest egg. It just angers the hell out of me that I have to pay for the mistakes made by a lot of unpatriotic people.

And what ever you do, don't you EVER question my patriotism. You're liable to find a flag planted where the sun don't shine.

Say It Ain't So, Joe: More Bidenisms

This was one of my favorite headlines during the past week: Obama Chides Biden for Off-Message Interview. Evidently Joe took exception to one of the campaign ads against John McCain. You know a campaign is negative when one of your own objects to it. I'd have liked to have seen that. Young Barack chiding old Joe. What a picture!

Before that, there was that other remark when asked whether the wealthy would be paying more tax. Biden answered, "It's time to be patriotic . . . time to jump in, time to be part of the deal, time to help get America out of the rut." I'm sure the Hollywood elite, who love Obama so much, will love this tax plan.

It's no wonder there are rumors about Biden dropping off the Democratic ticket and getting replaced. Of course, these are just rumors - if you actually believe Obama. Then again, Obama is screwed if he bumps him from the ticket - makes him look indecisive. Besides, I like having Joe on the ticket - he's funny and he makes McCain look better. Makes Dan Quayle look competent.

Doesn't he kind of look like McLean Stevenson as Col. Henry Blake on M*A*S*H? Sorry McLean. Rest in peace, buddy.

Pray for America

The purpose of this blog is to transmit what's on my mind and in my heart.

Lately with all the politics and the turmoil surrounding our crumbling economy, I haven't had a whole lot going on in my heart. I hadn't realized that until last night as I settled into bed after shooting out another political blog.

Frankly I'm concerned and even a little scared about what's happening. I am also very angry at those responsible for causing this mess.

So as I settled into bed last night, feeling sorry for myself, that small, still voice deep inside me spoke up and asked, "Have you prayed about this?" Have you prayed for your country?" Sadly, my answer was "no." That was my wake-up call.

We are facing what could be the most dire moment in our country's history during our lifetimes. More dire than Hurricanes Andrew, Ike, and Katrina. More dire than the floods that devastated the Midwest. More dire than the fires in California. Even more dire than September 11, 2001.

This is a disaster of our own doing, one that could have been prevented. There were those who warned us of this impending disaster. But the warnings went unheeded - even laughed off. We have been betrayed by the people whom we entrusted to lead us. Now that we are facing disaster, those we entrusted before cannot even agree on how to get us out of this.

It is this burden of adversity and uncertainty that I laid - and continue to lay - before God. "In God we Trust" is the motto proudly displayed on our currency. As a nation, the time certainly has come when we need to trust in God.

We need him now, more than ever. So please join with me - trust in God. And pray for America.

Top Recipients of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Campaign Contributions, 1989-2008

My source here - I feel - is pretty reliable. They got their information directly from the Federal Election Commission.

It would seem that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have some important stakeholders in their future. Feel free to look at the numbers and draw your own conclusions.

They come from both sides of the aisle, but notice the primary color. Wonder what they promised in return?

Name	Office	Party/State	Total
1. Dodd, Christopher J	Senate	D-CT	$133,900
2. Kerry, John	Senate	D-MA	$111,000
3. Obama, Barack	Senate	D-IL	$105,849
4. Clinton, Hillary	Senate	D-NY	$75,550
5. Kanjorski, Paul E	House	D-PA	$65,500
6. Bennett, Robert F	Senate	R-UT	$61,499
7. Johnson, Tim	Senate	D-SD	$61,000
8. Conrad, Kent	Senate	D-ND	$58,991
9. Davis, Tom	House	R-VA	$55,499
10. Bond, Christopher S 'Kit'	Senate	R-MO	$55,400
11. Bachus, Spencer	House	R-AL	$55,300
12. Shelby, Richard C	Senate	R-AL	$55,000
13. Emanuel, Rahm	House	D-IL	$51,750
14. Reed, Jack	Senate	D-RI	$50,750
15. Carper, Tom	Senate	D-DE	$44,389
16. Frank, Barney	House	D-MA	$40,100
17. Maloney, Carolyn B	House	D-NY	$38,750
18. Bean, Melissa	House	D-IL	$37,249
19. Blunt, Roy	House	R-MO	$36,500
20. Pryce, Deborah	House	R-OH	$34,750
21. Miller, Gary	House	R-CA	$33,000
22. Pelosi, Nancy	House	D-CA	$32,750
23. Reynolds, Tom	House	R-NY	$32,700
24. Hoyer, Steny H	House	D-MD	$30,500
25. Hooley, Darlene	House	D-OR	$28,750

Senate Bill S.190

Barack Obama has been so busy trying to place blame for our current financial crisis and accusing Senator McCain of being out of touch. Well, refer to my previous post regarding the then-upcoming real estate/mortgage bust.

Apparently others were well aware of what could happen to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and actually tried to do something about it (as opposed to just indicating "present"). One of those was John McCain, a co-sponsor of the Senate Bill S.190, entitled the Federal Housing Enterprise Regulatory Reform Act of 2005. Please read the following statement McCain made on May 26, 2005:

"Mr. President, this week Fannie Mae's regulator reported that the company's quarterly reports of profit growth over the past few years were "illusions deliberately and systematically created" by the company's senior management, which resulted in a $10.6 billion accounting scandal.

"The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight's report goes on to say that Fannie Mae employees deliberately and intentionally manipulated financial reports to hit earnings targets in order to trigger bonuses for senior executives. In the case of Franklin Raines, Fannie Mae's former chief executive officer, OFHEO's report shows that over half of Mr. Raines' compensation for the 6 years through 2003 was directly tied to meeting earnings targets. The report of financial misconduct at Fannie Mae echoes the deeply troubling $5 billion profit restatement at Freddie Mac.

"The OFHEO report also states that Fannie Mae used its political power to lobby Congress in an effort to interfere with the regulator's examination of the company's accounting problems. This report comes some weeks after Freddie Mac paid a record $3.8 million fine in a settlement with the Federal Election Commission and restated lobbying disclosure reports from 2004 to 2005. These are entities that have demonstrated over and over again that they are deeply in need of reform.

"For years I have been concerned about the regulatory structure that governs Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac--known as Government-sponsored entities or GSEs--and the sheer magnitude of these companies and the role they play in the housing market. OFHEO's report this week does nothing to ease these concerns. In fact, the report does quite the contrary. OFHEO's report solidifies my view that the GSEs need to be reformed without delay.

"I join as a cosponsor of the Federal Housing Enterprise Regulatory Reform Act of 2005, S. 190, to underscore my support for quick passage of GSE regulatory reform legislation. If Congress does not act, American taxpayers will continue to be exposed to the enormous risk that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac pose to the housing market, the overall financial system, and the economy as a whole

"I urge my colleagues to support swift action on this GSE reform legislation."

Here's a link from Bloomberg on this also.

What McCain predicted, even before the bubble burst, is now coming true. Evidently, his plea for Congress to act fell on deaf ears as usual.

It was the Clinton administration that first allowed mortgage companies to make bad loans to people who actually didn't qualify.

Some of you may say, "Well, McCain just co-sponsored the bill." So how many bills have you co-sponsored?

McCain was not the problem. He offered a solution but got shot down. But unlike Vietnam, we are all prisoners.

Electoral Votes: September 20, 2008

National Percentage:
McCain 62%, Obama 38%

Even as I was writing my last post, the numbers changed. Colorado and New Hampshire - two states that were very close anyway - changed from Obama to McCain. Alaska, a perennial red state is still an anomaly which I had to place as a blue state. But they are getting close anyway with a 61% advantage toward McCain.

As AOL resets the straw poll every Thursday, perhaps Saturday is not a good day to post results as the data has only had two days to refresh.

States to Watch:
Alaska, Colorado, Indiana, Missouri, Nebraska, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Wisconsin.

source: AOL Straw Poll
see also: Methodology

Counting the Vote: My Methodology

Recently, I've gotten interested in the AOL Straw Poll. Not that it is terribly scientific, but because I believe I have found that with some simple adjustments, it may actually reflect what's going on out there. So I'm conducting this little experiment to see how close it is. Of course the true test will be after the actual votes are counted on November 4.

My Methodology
If I were to follow the raw data on America Online, it would be totally unrealistic. Today, for example, the whole map would be red except for Maine and DC. Surely there are plenty of liberal Democrats out there who would muster considerably more than the seven electoral votes than what today's numbers represent (it's no wonder why they whine and complain on the comments section on how unfair and inaccurate AOL's poll is).

So I tweak the numbers. First I note what the national percentages are and who the leader is. Then I check the results from each state. If the percentage is greater than or equal to that of the national leader, I award that state to the leader. For example, in last week's poll, John McCain was the leader at 60%. Any state where 60% or more of its votes went to McCain was awarded to McCain on the electoral vote map.

REVISION EFFECTIVE OCTOBER 3rd
America Online has revised the Straw Poll to include presidential candidates from other parties or who are running as independents. They are also counting undecided votes. This is good news as I feel it is an even more accurate gauge of what's going on. As a result, my methodology is also slightly changed.

If, when checking the results from each state, the leader does not have a percentage equal or greater to the national average, then I compare the national average of the runner-up. If the runner-up has a percentage of that state's votes that is equal or greater than that of the national average, then that state's electoral votes are awarded to the runner-up (otherwise they are awarded to the leader).

Here are some examples: In this week's poll so far, McCain leads with a percentage of 54% of the straw poll vote nationally. Obama has a percentage of 42%. Example 1: In New Hampshire, McCain has 53% of the votes in the straw poll. Prior to the revision, New Hampshire would have gone to Obama automatically. But now we compare Obama's numbers; he has 43% of the vote. New Hampshire still goes to Obama. Example 2: In Utah, McCain has 50% of the vote, which is not even close prior to the revision. However, when we compare Obama's numbers, he only has 41% of the vote (he would need 42%); therefore Utah goes to McCain anyway.

Anomolies
As with any polling method, there is a margin of error. Surprisingly (or not) these results have been fairly close to what everybody else's polls have been saying with only a few exceptions. With the revision to AOL's Straw Poll and to my methodology, I expect fewer anomalies.

One of those exceptions, strangely enough, was Alaska. Maybe those in Alaska who have internet tend to be Obama supporters. Or perhaps, it's been a long time since the other polls have taken place in Alaska, and really are turning blue.

I've even seen a few traditionally red states turn blue. But who knows? Perhaps that has really been happening.

One factor I have not considered in my methodology is the number of votes in each state. For example, Colorado and Alabama each have nine electoral votes. As of a few seconds ago, Colorado shows 4,300 have cast their vote on AOL. But in Alabama, over 13,000 have voted. Doesn't quite sound fair, does it?

But I have seen some of the battleground states switch back and forth between candidates, just like all the other polls. So maybe I'm not too far off.

Sharing My Results
Over the next several weeks until the election is over and the real votes are counted, I will be posting my my results in this blog. I will state the source of my data, how I came up with the results, and also post a link to a site (maintained by the L.A. Times) showing a map of how the states voted.

Enjoy. And PLEASE, PLEASE, PLEASE take the opportunity these next 44 days to study the candidates and what they stand for and make an informed decision before casting your ballot.

Stay brave, stay free.

Joe Biden: An Unwise Choice?

Vice President nominee Joseph Biden has led a distinguished career as a U.S. Senator from Delaware, including legislation which helped create a "drug czar" and significant measures to combat domestic violence.

Biden has unsuccessfully run for President twice, including this year. However, he has come one step closer by being tapped by Barak Obama as his running mate.

But I wonder if he really wants the job.

Many wonder why Obama chose Joe as the Vice Presidential candidate. Earlier in the campaign, Joe said that Obama was clearly not experienced and that the Oval Office was not a good place for on-the-job training.

He was later quoted as saying that Hillary Clinton would have been a better choice for Vice President.

Joe Biden appears to have the enthusiasm of a block of wood when it comes to the possibility of being Vice President. The polls show it.

Obama may have scored a slam-dunk if he had chosen Hillary Clinton as his running mate. That would have united the Democratic Party. Instead, it is quite possible that Obama made a fatal error and his campaign is - at least for the time being - sputtering.

By the way, in light of the crisis in our financial markets, Joe Biden was a sponsor of the new bankruptcy law - which helps the banks (many of which are based in his home state of Delaware) but not the consumers. Banks don't vote. Consumers do.

So Where Was Congress?

I don't have a PhD in economics, but even I could foresee the bubble bursting in what was once known as our last real estate boom.

Apparently there were a considerable number of lenders (even reputable ones like Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac) who were giving away mortgages to people who didn't even qualify to begin with. HELLO!!! HOW STUPID IS THAT?!?!?!

Meanwhile, as the real estate market was showing signs of unraveling - even to those of us who do not have PhD's in economics - where was our Congress?

Lest We Forget: The Democrat-Controlled Congress

Here's something I found on AOL I thought I'd share:

It was only 2 years ago. Remember the election in 2006?
Thought you might like to read the following:
A little over one year ago:

1) Consumer confidence stood at a 2 1/2 year high;
2) Regular gasoline sold for $2.19 a gallon;
3) The unemployment rate was 4.5%.

Since voting in a Democratic Congress in 2006 we have seen:

1) Consumer confidence plummet;
2) The cost of regular gasoline soar to over $3.50 a gallon;
3) Unemployment is up to 5% (a 10% increase);
4) American households have seen $2.3 trillion in equity value
evaporate (stock and mutual fund losses);
5) Americans have seen their home equity drop by $1.2 trillion
dollars;
6) 1% of American homes are in foreclosure.

America voted for change in 2006, and we got it!
Remember its Congress that makes law not the President. He has to
work with what's handed to him.

Remember this on November 4.

Politics - Yikes!

It is interesting to see that despite the deeply personal nature of politics, people are willing to openly share their opinions. When that happens, those who are listening tend to want to jump in with their own opinions. And when all parties don't agree, it tends to get a little heated.

With the presidential election coming in about 60 days, it is becoming increasingly difficult for me to avoid getting sucked into these conversations. I have pretty strong convictions as how to run the country, and I'm usually quite willing to share my views. That's why I like to blog. I can state my point of view in peace; you can read it and you can agree or disagree with it and I'm safe right here in my chair in front of the computer. Chicken.

Yesterday morning was a prime example of why I don't like to discuss politics with family and friends. As I do every Saturday morning, I was meeting with two other Christian men for breakfast where we discuss how our week went and pray for each other for the next week. Something related to the upcoming election came up and there was a disagreement. Fortunately we didn't go too far with it, but it was clear that we may be on different sides of the fence. Although a little awkward, we did change the subject and were able to move on.

Why we are on different sides of the fence is not important - as long as we are making an informed decision. And while my friend and I disagree on the point (which - funny thing - I don't remember what it was), I respect his viewpoint because I know - based on his knowledge and his experience - he has made an informed decision. Besides, who's to say who's right and who's wrong?

With the passing of my wife's uncle on Thursday, we will have a lot of family getting together. This is a family where the the political spectrum literally runs from the far left to the far right, and political discussions are common. This will be a difficult time. I think the safest thing for me to do is just smile and walk away.

Personally my mind is made up. Based on my own knowledge and research, and my own values, I have made my decision.

Saint Called to Heaven

My wife's Uncle Roger passed away a couple of hours ago. His health had been deteriorating gradually for the last couple of years, and the deterioration had accelerated this past summer. He had already been in hospice once already, but recovered enough so that he could move into a group home. But last week he suffered a stroke and ended up back in hospice.

While it is never an easy thing for the family, at least there is some satisfaction that he did have a full life, and is no longer suffering.

His room at the hospice had a large window by his bed. There was a bird feeder outside and you could watch the birds. His wife and daughter were there when he passed. They say that as he breathed his last breath, a bird hit the window, then flew off.

Roger is at peace now. No doubt he's playing cards with his twin brother.

Storm Damage

It appears that our summer monsoon is going out with a bang. After today we should see a drying trend which could actually be the end of the season. Meanwhile, we've had some crazy weather here in Maricopa County. A very powerful storm swept through on Thursday night which packed winds estimated at 100 mph in some parts (Sky Harbor Airport reported winds of 75 mph - which is considered hurricane-strength. Although we didn't experience the brunt of the storm here at our house (but got to see a spectacular lightning show nonetheless) Tempe and downtown Phoenix were hit especially hard. I saw that first hand today when I went to church (which is just north of downtown Phoenix). The neighborhood, which normally looks immaculate, was scattered with debris - mostly palm tree parts along with leaves, twigs, and small branches of all varieties. I didn't go down the street with the downed power poles still hanging there at an angle - but heard about it. I noticed some roof tiles that were askew, especially on the bell tower. The courtyard of the church showed a fair amount of damage, including one of my favorite trees (which is probably a total loss). You could see water damage on the carpet where the wind had driven the rain under the door. Amazing. I don't know about the trees, but hopefully the church's insurance will cover the roof damage. At least new trees can be planted (an idea for a youth project!).

Here's an aerial photo of our church in calmer times:

Election 2008 - Now It's Getting Interesting

This is certainly shaping up to be an interesting election year after all, and strangely I've commented very little about it so far. I guess I've just been more or less underwhelmed by the choices given to me until today.

Barak Obama has his moments. He is articulate and charismatic. He is a wonderful speaker, and if elected President, he would be the finest orator since Ronald Reagan (and light years ahead of the White House's current occupant). He speaks of hopes and dreams.

Unfortunately, Obama hasn't outlined a viable plan for attaining those hopes and dreams. He promises the moon - but how do we pay for it? He sounds just like another tax-and-spend Democrat of old.

Critics harp on his lack of experience, especially in matters of foreign policy. Joe Biden, his running mate, has been quoted several times that Obama lacks the experience needed to be presidential. Even before he ran for President, Obama stated he lacked the experience and it would make sense for him to run until he got it. Now he's running for President. Just when was it that he gained the experience?

I was expecting a rather contentious Democratic convention, especially when you consider the rift between the Obama and Clinton campaigns. It was a brilliant move that when New York was to pledge its delegates, Hillary Clinton made the motion to nominate Obama by acclamation. Brilliant.

What bothers me about Obama is that he doesn't seem able to make a firm stand. For example, there was that speech where Obama basically said that black men needed to take more responsibility toward their families, especially the children they father and leave behind. Good point. And having been raised by a single mom himself, Obama speaks from personal experience. I would go farther and say that all men, regardless of race (etc.) take responsibility. It's a proven fact that children do better with a father in their life. There are a lot of men out there that agree with Obama's statement - me included. It's even one of the cornerstones of the Promisekeepers movement. The Reverend Jesse Jackson took exception to that statement, saying on (what he thought was not) an open microphone that Obama should have his nuts cut off. That caused a big uproar that further exposed how irreverent the Reverend is (having joined the ranks of sperm donors around the world who have also fathered illegitimate children).

Irreverand Jackson later apologized to Obama, and Obama accepted it - without question or hesitation. And that was it. Considering how strongly I feel about this issue, I would not have been as gracious. I would have called Jackson out on the carpet for modeling his inappropriate behavior. Ah, but I guess Obama feels he still needs Jackson's support and doesn't want to offend the powerful voting bloc of fathers with illegitimate fathers.

That, I believe, is when Obama lost me for good.

John McCain, up to now, has been okay. Yes, he's from my home state of Arizona. So was our infamous former-now-late-governor Evan Mecham. But I've always liked him anyway. He says what's on his mind. And I don't care about his reputation for his temper. Most of time the one who made him mad deserves it anyway.

I think the turning point came when Russia invaded Georgia a few weeks ago. McCain was quick to make a televised statement condemning the invasion - and looking presidential when he did it (as many of the news outlets also noted). Barak Obama - as he deserves to do - was vacationing in Hawaii and did not avail himself to comment. McCain seized the opportunity, and it seems to have worked.

But what really blew me away was today's announcement of his running mate, Alaska governor Sarah Palin.

My first reaction was like that of many others - who? But when I checked her out on Wikipedia I thought, "Wow!" This young lady of only 44 has tackled the good ol' boys of the Republican machine in Alaska and won. She has fought corruption and lowered taxes, and has truly worked for the good of the people of Alaska.

Many have criticized the candidates for being out of touch. This one-time beauty queen and hockey mom is the real deal. Keep your eye on Sarah Palin. In this election, I truly believe she will appeal not only to a lot of women (even those disheartened by Hillary Clinton's failed run) but to a lot of real people. P I think this may be the most brilliant political move John McCain has ever made. Time will tell.

Obama plays the game of politics pretty well. But I believe McCain is playing it to win.

People want change. They are tired of how things are being run in Washington. I believe McCain/Palin can actually accomplish some. Obama/Biden is hoping for change, but it looks more like business as usual. Obama, you have 67 days to prove to me otherwise. Give it your best shot.

Midsummer Musings: What I've Learned

I've learned a few new things so far this summer:

1. There is always something new and exciting to discover even in the most familiar places.
2. Camp rules need to include rules against cross-dressing.
3. Talking like a pirate is hard on the voice.
4. Some of my high school classmates look old.
5. Some of my high school classmates still look hot.
6. I love singing karaoke.
7. Air conditioners are built to be more efficient than they were even just 10 years ago.
8. Toilets are built to be more efficient and flush less than they did prior to 1994.
9. Toilets are easy to install.
10. The wax ring used in installing toilets is really disgusting - even when it's clean.
11. There's a better way to get to Prescott and avoid the traffic on the main highway.
12. Our dog is smarter than I thought.
13. 18-inch tiles are heavier than they look.

Again, I've been reminded that God doesn't give us more than we can handle, and gives us just enough of the resources we need. Between the refinance, a generous tax refund and a stimulus check, we have had just enough to pay for new flooring and a new air conditioner without going further into debt. Nice.

And as always, good friends are more valuable than money in the bank.

Midsummer Musings: New Flooring

After a real busy June, I thought I could go into cruise mode. Nay, nay.

I had (grudgingly) promised my wife that we would replace the flooring in the house. We had some old carpet that desperately needed to go, and some pretty ugly vinyl that pretended to look like birch or something.

We have a friend in the flooring business so we met with her on July 3. We decided to go with ceramic tile throughout the whole house and tentatively scheduled the job for the end of July/early August. M then told us that we had to pack up and essentially move out of the house during the job. We could save a little money also if we pulled off the baseboards ourselves. They would take care of removing and replacing the toilets.

So that got us moving. We started filling about 20 or 30 boxes full of our stuff, as well as doing a general housecleaning.

Realizing that toilets would be pulled had me a little concerned, especially knowing that one was having a bit of a problem with the connection between the tank and the bowl. I figured it would have to be replaced. When I felt around for the bolts and one fell off, I knew we were buying a new toilet. And since the other toilet was flushing well, I thought, "Why not replace both?" So off I went to Home Depot for two toilets and we (meaning I) set out to replace them. Even though I knew they would have to be pulled again in a few weeks, I decided to get some practice in. It went well and was easier than I thought.

I then looked at my computer desk. It's a nice desk, but it would have to be disassembled before I could get it out of the room. I didn't want to disassemble and reassemble it again. So I decided to convert the closet in this bedroom (which is my computer room/study) into a computer work station. This entailed another trip to Home Depot for materials and some paint. I now have a nice computer work station tucked away in the corner and have virtually added considerable space to this room.

Then came the phone call from our friend M on the 11th. The contractor had to start work on the 18th. We had just a week to get everything ready. Yikes! Near-panic set in. But the good news was that they could work around us a little (i.e. - we only had to move the piano a few feet).

Nonetheless, we were still scrambling as the day drew nearer. Packing with finesse went out the window and things were getting thrown into boxes. Some boxes ended up on the patio, wrapped up in plastic sheeting like a big burrito. Other boxes that needed protection from the heat outside ended up being stacked in one of the bathtubs. With help from family (my son-in-law was especially helpful), we managed to get most of the furniture into the garage or on the patio. Our bed would move as needed.

By the time the contractor and his helper showed up on Friday, I still had a little bit of baseboard to pull, but I did manage to keep ahead of them.

M had told us the job would take three days. The contractor said it would take five. He was right. But it did go rather smoothly.

On Saturday I pulled one of the toilets and was able to reinstall it the next day (we were assured that there would always be at least one usable bathroom during the entire job).

Also on Saturday, it was becoming apparent that the monsoon storms would be coming back. There wasn't much protection on the patio except for the boxes that were wrapped like a big burrito. Fortunately there was plenty of plastic sheeting left, so I tacked it up all around the patio (leaving just enough of an opening for the dog). You'd think we were boarding up for a hurricane.

The effort to weatherproof the patio proved not to be in vain as we were awakened by a loud crack of thunder in the wee hours of the next morning, followed by the sound of a heavy rain pounding on the roof. The patio was just fine.

On Sunday morning we were able to move the piano back into the now-completed living room (by now that whole half of the house was done and the concrete and grout was set). We also moved our bed into the living room along with the refrigerator and a dresser. We essentially camped out in our living room for two nights. Our living arrangements, coupled with the blackness outside our patio door due to the black plastic sheeting, made it feel pretty weird.

On Monday I pulled the other toilet as they worked on our kitchen, bedroom, and bathroom. And on Tuesday - as promised - they were done.

Our son-in-law helped us get our couch back in place, and a couple of friends came over to help with most of the rest of the furniture; I reinstalled the second toilet as well. At last we had our house back.

The new tile is gorgeous and was well worth the time and effort. I even admitted to my wife that I was glad I didn't do the job myself, and at my own pace (which would have taken until Christmas - 2010).

Since the baseboards are off, that has inspired me for our next project - painting. That I can do at my own pace and be done by Christmas - this year. Besides, I've already purchased new baseboards.